Dell announced earlier this week that it was going private in a $24.4 billion deal. The buyout is the largest since Blackstone’s $26 billion takeover of Hilton Hotels in 2007 and will add $15 billion of new debt to Dell.

Dell is clearly at a difficult crossroads. In 2005, Dell was the world’s largest maker of PCs while today it is now third behind HP and Lenovo.  Today Dell’s market share in PCs is roughly 11 percent – down from about 16.8 percent in 2005.  While PCs have suffered, some of Dell’s other business units continue to expand. Dell’s server & networking revenue grew 11 percent year-over-year during the third fiscal quarter ending November 2, 2012 – the only business unit to experience growth.  This growth enabled Enterprise Solutions and Services to grow three percent during a quarter wherein overall revenue was down 11 percent.  The most severe revenue declines came from client products like notebook and desktop PCs.  Mobility products – which include notebooks – experienced a revenue decline of 26 percent while desktop PCs declined 8 percent.

Here’s a view of things from that most recent 10Q:

During the third quarter of Fiscal 2013, net revenue from our Commercial segments decreased 7%, and represented approximately 82% of our total net revenue. The decrease in our Commercial net revenue was driven by an 11% decrease in net revenue from our Public customers, who continue to experience budget constraints, and an 8% decrease in net revenue from our Large Enterprise segment. Net revenue from our SMB segment decreased 1% during the third quarter of Fiscal 2013. All of our Commercial segments experienced declines in revenue from client products, and for our Large Enterprise and SMB segments, these declines were partially offset by increases in revenue from our enterprise solutions and services offerings. During the third quarter of Fiscal 2013, net revenue from our Consumer customers decreased 23%, and represented approximately 18% of our total net revenue

While Dell’s consumer business is still 18% of revenue – some $2.5 billion in the most recent quarter – it declined 23 percent. More importantly, while the segment added nearly $100 billion in operating income in the year-ago quarter, it had a $65 billion operating loss in the most recently concluded quarter.

In a memo to employees, Michael Dell wrote, ” “Dell’s transformation is well under way, but we recognize it will still take more time, investment and patience. I believe that we are better served with partners who will provide long-term support to help Dell innovate and accelerate the company’s transformation strategy.” Certainly it would be easier for Dell to exit the consumer PC market outside the scrutinizing eye of the financial markets.

A recent analyst report covering Tawainese ODMs suggested Dell and to a certain extent HP have few design-in and models targeting the consumer PC segment in 2013. This might support the belief Dell is pulling out of the consumer PC segment.

At the same time, the consumer PC segment is still a large one for Dell.  As I stated above, it generated $2.5 billion in the most recent quarter. But operating incomes have been recently negative – a $65 billion loss in the most recent nine months. In the last nine months, Dell’s consumer segment lost $19 billion in operating income while it made $372 billion in operating income in the same period a year-ago.

Should Dell exiting or even de-emphasize the consumer PC segment, it will probably likely benefit companies like Lenovo, Asustek, and even companies like Vizio who are steadily attempting to make inroads into the PC market.  Though Microsoft’s commitment to lend Dell $2 billion as part of this buyout does support the belief Dell won’t disrupt the PC market with a grand exit anytime soon. “Microsoft is committed to the long term success of the entire PC ecosystem and invests heavily in a variety of ways to build that ecosystem for the future,” Microsoft said in a statement – one that doesn’t point to Dell making major changes within the PC business units.

How important the PC business – and specifically the consumer PC business – will be in helping Dell pay down its new found debt remains to be seen. The New York Times article on the buyout reads, “despite taking on an additional $15 billion in debt, Mr. Dell and Silver Lake argue that the company will survive, thanks to the cash that the PC business still generates” and “people involved in the transaction said that the buyers had prepared for potential further declines in the PC business, but intend on at least maintaining the company’s position. Dell’s cash from operations has held steady for four of the last five years, coming in at $5.5 billion for the most recent fiscal year.”

These statements don’t seem to take into account the financial reality of what’s happening at least within Dell’s consumer PC business. Over the last 9 months Dell’s consumer PC business has negative operating income so there is no “cash” to pay down debt from this division. If things continues, it will require some of said cash.  And since operating income contributes to net income which contributes to cash flow from operations, Dell’s consumer business doesn’t currently contribute to helping maintain Dell’s cash from operations.

 

 

I returned from Helsinki tonight – where I’ve been for the last four days. It is always insightful to read the news when I’m outside the U.S. The local news always has more relevancy and I see the U.S. news with a fresh perspective.

At its root, the different perspectives frequently come down to global competitiveness – where the U.S. fits in and where Europe fits into an increasingly competitive global landscape.  The news on Europe always seems to focus on becoming more globally competitive and yet I rarely see the signs in practice that would lead to a steeper growth curve. For example, it never ceases to surprise me how short the days are in Europe. And this isn’t just Finland where the days were shortened by winter. Across Europe, many businesses don’t open until 11AM and are closed by 5PM or 6PM.  When output is a function of time worked, you simply can’t match the output of a country willing to work longer.

Over dinner on Wednesday I spoke with some Finnish entrepreneurs regarding the differing environments in the U.S. and Finland.  They argued the ability to get a completely free education in Finland actually hurts growth because individuals will obtain additional degrees with government financial support and live the student life as opposed to entering the work force. In other words, individuals opt for more education than is perhaps optimal because of subsidizes. At the same time they also argued however that the U.S. environment is much more flexible in that individuals can be trained and/or educated in fields different from their first degree and can therefore switch job tracks more easily.  I would argue this also happens extensively within corporations. U.S. companies are extremely flexible in helping their employees find new (and different) opportunities within the company – even if the new opportunity is far afield from what they were originally hired to do.  It should be no surprise that individuals who are happier at what they are doing will do it longer and be more productive.

One Finnish entrepreneur I spoke with has been living in the US for the last 10+ years.  His first degree came from a Finnish university where it was completely free.  After working for a few years in Finland he enrolled in the Stanford Graduate School of Business where he received his MBA. He recounted how all of his Finnish friends at the time argued against going into large personal debt for a second degree. Herein lies one of the big differences between Europe and the US.  In the U.S., the outcome spread between successfully and unsuccessfully assuming risk is much wider.  In the U.S. we rightly see higher education degrees as signals to the market. It isn’t what you learn as much as it is what you signal to the market. There is tremendous risk in attempting to signal to the market and as a result there is compensation for that risk. If you are unsuccessful at sending the right signal, you could find yourself on the wrong side of six figures of debt.

The spread in outcomes of risk taking is also evident in compensation. I would imagine in Europe the spread between those on government welfare and the average European salary is much narrower than in the U.S. The upside is also likely true. Incomes for the top 1% in the U.S. start at around $385,000 – while the average household income in the U.S. is around $44,000. The poverty threshold for a family of four is about $23,000 in annual income and about 15% of the U.S. is living belong the poverty threshold. The choice to not work in Europe isn’t as detrimental as it is in U.S. while the incentive to work to extreme levels is also not as evident.

Whenever I’m in Europe it always seems easy to see some of the issues that throttle growth. I also can’t help but think that in the U.S. we are often doing all we can to implement many of the same policies and tack the same course. In Friday’s FT there was an analysis on the U.S. tax system.  The infographic compared tax revenue as a percentage of GDP for the U.S., several European countries, and several other developed nations including Canada, Japan, and Australia.  The key message of the infographic was that the U.S. was at the bottom with just 24.8% – the lowest total tax revenue as a percentage of GDP for those countries included in the graphic. The analysis offered ways the U.S. could increase tax revenue. Essentially – how the U.S. could become more like Europe. The article stated a “shocking shortfall: the tax system generated $2.45T in revenue in 2012, not nearly enough to cover the $3.54T in spending by federal government.” The European perspective is to raise tax revenue to cover federal spending.  We are taking this perspective too frequently in the U.S. today instead of looking at what spending might be cut or other ways in which the U.S. economy could grow. We focus on the numerators rather than the denominators of these ratios. Had the infographic included – as it should have – faster growth countries like China then the analysis could have taken a very different perspective. The Heritage Foundation estimates the same ratio for China is 17% so by comparison we are high. It isn’t Europe’s growth we are trying to match so in examining correct policy approaches we should look to those who are winning on a global scale.

The Finnish entrepreneur I mentioned above took his company public last year on the NYSE and today employees some 400+ individuals in the U.S.  He mentioned his Green Card had been denied on three different occasions. In order for the U.S. to remain competitive we simply have to fix our ability to retain the world’s brightest. The U.S. is a country built upon those who risked it all. They left what they knew.  They left family, friends, homes, support networks.  They spent at times their entire net worth in order to have the chance to reinvent themselves in America.  We want these risk seekers.  We need these risk seekers. We too often forget we are a people built upon these risk seekers.

Much of the international news on Thursday and Friday covered British Prime Minister David Cameron’s address on Europe and his promise of an in-or-out referendum by the end 2017. As London Mayor Boris Johnson put it, “what most sensible people want is to belong to the single market but to lop off the irritating excrescences of the European Union.” Fundamentally, Cameron was making a case for change with Europe but in so doing falls prey to one of the biggest hurdles facing European growth.

One of the key problems for European growth is the highly fragmented nature of the Union.  Each individual country has unique properties like tastes and preferences of it’s individuals citizens, unique regulations, and languages which makes scaling businesses across the continent difficult. More, once started, businesses don’t have the resources to scale “Continentally” because their home markets aren’t sufficiently large to give them the base needed to push into new markets. For example, Finland only has five million citizens so even a successful company in Finland probably hasn’t garnered enough resources to scale. As I’ve written about in the past, because of the high fragmentation with Europe there are elections somewhere within Europe nearly every month.  This means that somewhere in Europe there is discussion, debates, and ultimately pushes to change Europe. A tremendous amount of time and energy is dedicated to dialogue on European change. The U.S. doesn’t face such a high frequency of dialogue about changing the marketplace.

I left the Washington, DC on Monday evening – just hours after President Obama had given his second term inaugural address. The airport was quiet for a Monday and I saw a few clearing security with freshly minted inaugural paraphilia. On Wednesday much of the International press was still discussing the inaugural address. I read David Brooks’ New York Times column “The Collective Turn” in the International Herald Tribune. David Brooks’ column was squarely about the differences between Europe and the U.S. and how we are increasingly inclined to take a European approach. Brooks writes,”

Obama wasn’t explicit about why we have failed to meet these challenges. But his critique was implicit. There has been too much “me” – too much individualism and narcissism, too much retreating into the private sphere…I was stuck by what he left out in his tour through American history.  I, too, would celebrate Seneca Falls, Selma, and Stonewall, but I’d also mention Wall Street, State Street, Menlo Park, and Silicon Valley.  I’d emphasize that America has prospered because we have a decentralizing genius… When Europeans invested in national welfare states, American localities invested in human capital…America’s greatest innovations and commercial blessings were unforeseen by those at the national headquarters. They emerged, bottom up, from tinkers and business outsiders who could never have attracted the attention of a president or some public-private investment commission.

I agree with Brooks. Obama seems to suggest that we’ve simply got the institutions wrong and doing a “better” job of defining and empowering the institutionalized parts of America will right the ship.  But we need a new approach – one that is socially responsible, but remains fiscally conservative.  An approach that keeps a wide financial chasm to incentive those willing to risk it all that they too might one day take a company public on the NYSE and employee 400+. We need an approach that doesn’t pick the winners and losers, but provides a platform that ensures the winners win big and they can only do it in the U.S. We need an approach that has us once again striving for greatness.

Greg Hoffman wanted an iPhone from his parents.  He received one together with a contract from his mother, Janell Hoffman.  Here are the contract terms:

1. It is my phone. I bought it. I pay for it. I am loaning it to you. Aren’t I the greatest?
2. I will always know the password.
3. If it rings, answer it. It is a phone. Say hello, use your manners. Do not ever ignore a phone call if the screen reads “Mom” or “Dad”. Not ever.
4. Hand the phone to one of your parents promptly at 7:30pm every school night & every weekend night at 9:00pm. It will be shut off for the night and turned on again at 7:30am. If you would not make a call to someone’s land line, wherein their parents may answer first, then do not call or text. Listen to those instincts and respect other families like we would like to be respected.
5. It does not go to school with you. Have a conversation with the people you text in person. It’s a life skill.
6. If it falls into the toilet, smashes on the ground, or vanishes into thin air, you are responsible for the replacement costs or repairs.
7. Do not use this technology to lie, fool, or deceive another human being. Do not involve yourself in conversations that are hurtful to others. Be a good friend first or stay the hell out of the crossfire.
8-9. Do not text, email, or say anything through this device you would not say in person.
10. No porn.
11. Turn it off, silence it, put it away in public. Especially in a restaurant, at the movies, or while speaking with another human being. You are not a rude person; do not allow the iPhone to change that.
12. Do not send or receive pictures of your private parts or anyone else’s private parts. Don’t laugh. Someday you will be tempted to do this despite your high intelligence. It is risky and could ruin your teenage/college/adult life. It is always a bad idea. Cyberspace is vast and more powerful than you. And it is hard to make anything of this magnitude disappear — including a bad reputation.
13. Don’t take a zillion pictures and videos. There is no need to document everything. Live your experiences. They will be stored in your memory for eternity.
14. Leave your phone home sometimes and feel safe and secure in that decision. It is not alive or an extension of you. Learn to live without it. Be bigger and more powerful than FOMO — fear of missing out.
15. Download music that is new or classic or different than the millions of your peers that listen to the same exact stuff. Your generation has access to music like never before in history. Take advantage of that gift. Expand your horizons.
16. Play a game with words or puzzles or brain teasers every now and then.
17. Keep your eyes up. See the world happening around you. Stare out a window. Listen to the birds. Take a walk. Talk to a stranger. Wonder without googling.
18. You will mess up. I will take away your phone. We will sit down and talk about it. We will start over again. You & I, we are always learning. I am on your team. We are in this together.

While it was”done in jest,” I love these rules and plan to follow suit when I provide similar access to technology in my own household. You can read more here.

Since the election, the Fiscal Cliff as dominated the media cycle.  Here is Google Trend data depicting web search interest for the term “Fiscal Cliff” over the last twelve months in the United States. Unsurprisingly, web searches have spiked significantly.  This has been true not only in the United States, but also in the rest of the world.

Now that the Fiscal Cliff as been averted pushed forward, I imagine that web searches as a share of total searches will decline, but since nothing was really solved, I imagine we’ll continue to see spikes of media attention and subsequent consumer attention throughout most of 2013.

0113 fiscal cliff google trends

 

 

 

 

An AP story from earlier this week highlights the work Scott Harrison and Charity Water is doing to to install sensors in wells in Africa so water flow can be monitored remotely. With declining sensor prices, expect to see more sensors deployed to monitor charitable work in hard-to-reach places.

There were a variety of referendums and other ballot measures this election. In Fairfax County there were four separate bond measures and each passed with a wide margin.  Surely each of these are “good” and “needed,” but on seeing the results I questioned if most voters understand how municipal bond issues work.

There are two primary bonds issued by municipalities – revenue bonds and general obligation bonds.  Revenue bonds guarantee repayment (solely) through the revenues generated from a specific project or activity specified by the bond issue.  Stadium bonds are examples of revenue bonds with the interest and principal of the bond being repaid from revenue generated by the stadium once construction is complete and the stadium is put into use.

General obligation bonds conversely, are backed by the municipality’s ability to levy taxes on the residents of the municipality. By definition, general obligation bonds mean higher future taxation presuming spending on other projects and services don’t decline.

The East Coast is set to welcome tropical storm Sandy this week.  The potential damage is expected to be especially pronounced in the the Mid-Atlantic and New York tri-state areas.  Here are a few of the recent headlines:

This storm adds to the dozens (if not hundreds) of natural disaster events over the last 24 to 36 months which have been 1-in-50 or 1-in-100 year events.  Here are just a few of the events I’ve tracked over the last 2-3 years:

I caught the recent story of a man arrested for drug possession in Orlando.  Apparently police monitoring a live video feed sent officers to the scene who then made the arrest.

In the accompanying video, one of women being interviewed about the role of video cameras says something interesting. When asked if it is acceptable to use live video feeds to monitor behavior she responds, “around here they need to be watched.” Note, she doesn’t say, “we need to watch.”  She suggests the video doesn’t apply to her behavior, but rather the behavior of others. As we transition fully into the digital decade there remains diverse opinions on the role of data, but many seem to share this similar sentiment – that this broad movement doesn’t apply to oneself.

 

 

There is often much said on strategic immigration and the competitive battle for the world’s most gifted workers.  A recent interview with Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer in the Detroit Free Press drives home the negative externalities  from limiting the brightest from our shores. Ballmer discusses why in 2007 Microsoft built an R&D facility in Vancouver – just over the border from their Redmond, Washington headquarters  in Canada in 2007.  Ballmer stated Microsoft

Recently I’ve been asked repeatedly about the current state of Europe. I’ve said since January that 2012 was going to be marked by periods of volatility – stressing that European issues would be a key catalyst to those periods of volatility (energy prices have also contributed to uneasiness – something I’ll say more on at another time). I was recently quoted in a Bloomberg article and a point I made deserves repeating  – a lack of confidence can be very contagious.