Estimating iPad Second Quarter Unit Sales 0

Through the first three quarters of iPad availability, Apple sold 3.4 million, 4.3 million, and 7.33 million iPads respectively for a total of 15.03 million units through the first nine months.   The estimates for Apple’s second quarter iPad sales are all over the board.  For example, JP Morgan is expecting 5.3 million, RBC Capital is expecting 7 million, some are calling for something comparable to the 7.3 million sold last quarter, and Credit Suisse is estimating 7.84 million for the quarter.  Estimates of 13 analysts compiled by Bloomberg averaged 6.1 million units for the quarter.

My personal forecast of around 4 million for the quarter – made in December 2010 – is clearly on the low side.  At the time I expected a quarter-to-quarter sequential decline because the first calendar quarter is seasonally weak and that trend has been more pronounced in recent years.  More, I expected a new iPad launch that would slow gen one unit sales while at the same time production shortages would limit sales of gen two unit sales. 

Apple’s AirPlay Remains the Sleeper Hit for 2011 0

Back in January I wrote that Apple’s AirPlay would drive a renaissance for audio.  Networked audio solutions have been building slowly to a crescendo I believe plays out over the next 24 months.  Of course companies like Sonos and Logitech with their Squeezebox suite of devices left important early footprints while defining the market for networked audio solutions.  Several years ago I spoke with the guys at BridgeCo (who’s  JukeBlox Connectivity platform now enables Apple AirPlay) and could see the potential of network audio solutions.

Today several pieces have come together to make 2011 the year I expect to see networked audio move into the mainstream.  First, television sales are declining which will free dollars that can be spent on other tech categories (like audio). This development started in 2010 and will continue for at-least the next 4 years. At the same time consumers are maintaining their historically high levels of spending on technology relative to other durable goods. After spending a decade plus updating and upgrading video in their homes, consumers are starting to look at audio – something I’ve expected to see for the past several years, but is now just materializing. More, the strong growth in portable products like tablets and smartphones is creating the network effects that will ultimately power this ecosystem.

The Revealing Insights of App Downloads and What it Teaches Us about Hardware 0

What apps are downloaded (or conversely not downloaded) tell us much about a given individual’s tastes and preferences. These metrics in aggregate tell us even more about the desired use-case scenarios of hardware.

Last week Apple released their iTunes Rewind 2010 where they highlight the top performing apps for 2010. They did this in 2009, but with the release of the iPad earlier this year there is a new richness to the data that provides several insights into what the masses are trying to accomplish with a suite of devices largely differing only in form-factor…..

Kindle v. iPad: Value Positions, and Why Selling Hardware on Specs Alone is Dead 0

 

 

 

 

On Monday Amazon premiered a new Kindle commercial during Good Morning America. The ad (above) portrays two individuals trying to read poolside – one on an iPad and one on the new Kindle.  The essence of the commercial touts the relative readability of Kindle’s e-ink display in direct sunlight.    

Commentary (for example: here and here) on the new ad suggests a Kindle v. iPad strike. But the pundits miss the quintessential goal (and subsequent achievement) of the marketing spot. The Kindle ad isn’t about besting the iPad, it is about showing the consumer a discernible value. In the past brands created a value proposition, but moving forward they will increasingly create what I refer to as a value position…..

Rethinking the Context of Connectivity 0

Last week I spoke at that the Digital Media Conference where I shared some of the following thoughts on connectivity and Internet accessible devices.

The number of devices connecting to the Web via cellular, wireless, or wired connections continues to proliferate. But many of these devices frame the value of connection within a historical context. More connection in an ambiguous sense means more data. Adding connectivity to these devices is intended to drive more data to the device. Or at least the option of more. But more needs meaning. Tomorrow’s connectivity needs to be more than just greater options and greater flexibility for the end-user. Connectivity needs to be about choice with meaning and context.

Take for example the mobile phone. When we originally brought the Web to the mobile phone it was largely about browsing the Web from the phone. This was the historical context of the time. At this time we largely understood Internet access from the context of a computer browser. The focus at the time was on a better browser experience. A mobile Web experience needed to make it easier for users to get to and between the websites they were most interested in visiting. Websites even got involved by building sites optimized for mobile viewing. During these early years of Internet access on the phone the primary story was still about the phone. Browsing the Web on the phone was secondary to using the phone as a phone….

12Page 3 of 3