Often I see individuals talking and writing about adoption cycles and upgrade cycles as one in the same cycle. However I think an important differentiation can be made between adoption cycles and upgrade cycles.
When I talk about adoption cycles, I’m talking about the initial purchase of a device or service. Adoption is a necessary but not a sufficient requirement for an upgrade cycle to take place. Adoption cycles and upgrade cycles are predicated on several things – but many of these things are unique to each cycle. For example, an upgrade cycle is heavily influenced by the durability of the device segment – how long it will last – while this product characteristic has less influence on the initial adoption cycle.
Both adoption cycles and upgrade cycles are influenced by price – though demand in an upgrade cycle is likely less elastic than in the initial adoption cycle, at least as far as the mass market portion of the adoption cycle is concerned.
