Porsche announced today they would be opening an office in Silicon Valley. According to the press release, the mandate of the office, which will initially be about 100 staff, is to: 

recognize digitalization strategies and trends in the U.S. market more quickly and to be able to develop and test solutions for Porsche – making its proximity to technology enterprises and start-ups of particular importance. The office will focus on the topics of digitalization, connectivity, and smart mobility.

It appears Porsche will also be looking to acquire or invest in new companies.

While Porsche has thus far dismissed fully self-driving Porsches anytime soon, CEO Oliver Bloom did note use-case scenarios a few months ago that appear to suggest support for semi-autonomous Porsches: 

“At the moment we do not think about a full version of robotic driving, we are thinking about features to combine with the real Porsche genes, so at the end you still have a real Porsche. For example, when you are going to work in the morning and you are in a traffic jam, there is a possibility to read the newspaper. When you go to a restaurant and you cannot find somewhere to park, the car will find somewhere to park itself and then fetch you after you leave the restaurant.

Their forthcoming Silicon Valley office appears to be tapped to either acquire directly, or through partnership, the technologies needed to bring this vision to fruition.  

The announcement highlights the growing importance of Silicon Valley in defining the future of self-driving vehicles as well as defining the broader future of personal transportation. It also suggests that over the last decade Silicon Valley has amassed a critical level of talent in self-driving technologies and become an important nexus in defining the future of self-driving vehicles. 
This is no small footnote. As much as self-driving vehicles could define the next 50 years of transportation, Silicon Valley appears to be positioned to be a major force in that transformation. 

Amazon introduced the Amazon Echo Look today. There’s been a lot of coverage so I’ll stay away from a review of the specs and discuss what I see in the bigger picture:

  1. Expect ‘Sensor’ization. As I wrote about in Digital Destiny, we are moving into the next era of tech transformation. This transformation extends digitization beyond devices and towards everyday objects. As part of this transformation we are driving sensors into everything being digitized and are thereby unleashing a tsunami of data no digitally available. Adding microphones (and thereby enabling speech recognition) to a wireless speaker, as the original Amazon Echo did, aligns perfectly with what I wrote about in Digital Destiny. Coming back and adding a camera, a second sensor after the microphone, to this device is exactly what I wrote about. Moreover, driving more freshly digitized objects and newly digitized devices into additional spaces (ie new rooms of the house) is consistent with the explosion of digital objects I expect.
  2. The Bedroom: Amazon appears to be positioning the product for the bedroom. That probably tells us one of two things – either lots of consumers are placing Alexa in the bedroom and Amazon wants to take advantage of that and create new use-case scenarios or few consumers are placing these in the bedroom and Amazon sees it as the next place to go. Roughly 67 percent of U.S. households have broadband and there is little indication that is going to rise. In fact, it has even come down recently as households have moved to cellphone-only households. This suggests to me that, at least until 5G is a mass reality, the total addressable market (TAM) for these devices is about 60 or so percent of total households.Density rates are another story. Household density rates, the number of units of a given device in each household, are probably still relatively low. Ownership rates are low (thought growing) and the number of units per owning household isn’t much above one per household. But my own personal experience suggests density rates for voice-activated digital assistants will increase significantly. I have them in multiple rooms and use them each frequently. The kitchen, bedroom, and family room all make sense to me. I won’t be surprised when we see an all-weather model that could live on the deck. Creating use-case scenarios unique to these spaces is a natural way of driving adoption and density rates higher.
  3. Understanding Use-case Scenarios: The early use-case scenario for the Echo Look is full-length photos, but I wouldn’t count out other use-case scenarios. The Echo Look is akin to a connected webcam in many ways and one could easily envision a social network layering on top of this – enabling you to connect with your friends live while you figure out what to wear on that ever-important first date. New sensors create new use-case scenarios and we’ve only gotten a look at one potential use-case scenario so far. I would imagine more use-case scenarios aren’t fare behind and most of these will be driven by users experimenting with the devices.
  4. Doubling Down on Apparel: As I wrote about recently, Amazon is the biggest apparel retailer online and one of the biggest apparel retailers in the country. They’ve just positioned the Echo Look squarely in the apparel space.
  5. Service Boom: The product positioning, if successful, has incredible potential to drive services like Stitch Fix that curate apparel for consumers. With a catalog of what you have and what you like, machine learning will take care of the rest.
  6. Estimating Demand: Amazon is making the product available by invitation only. By doing this they have essentially created their own kickstarter campaign for a single product. They can gauge demand, and set production, by examining how many people request an invite. They should be able to also see how many of those individuals have a Alexa-enabled device already. They also get to decide who gets the first Echo Looks. Will it be the people who are the heaviest users of Alexa today? Or will it be those who spend the most on Amazon or buy the most apparel? Whatever the deciding factors, I hope I’m early on the list!

Digitization is eradicating randomness. It’s a bold conjecture. But one manifesting itself in myriad ways.

If you’ve been following the news over the past couple of weeks, you’ve surely read more than a few articles about United flight 3411 from Chicago to Louisville. When videos of Dr. David Dao being dragged off United Airlines flight 3411 hit social media on it sparked outrage. Statements from United and United CEO Oscar Munoz fueled the fire of a quickly escalating PR crisis.

Initial reports of the incident came from passengers on the flight. Audra Bridges, who was one of those passengers, reported the airline needed four additional seats so United initially offered $400 and a free hotel to incentive volunteers. When no one volunteered, the offer was doubled to $800 and with still no volunteers, the airline selected four passengers to involuntarily leave the flight. Bridges reported Dao was “told he had been selected randomly to be taken off the flight.” But as USA Today noted, Dao and the other individuals denied boarding were likely not chosen at random. Rather, a computer algorithm probably chose these individuals from the full list of passengers on the flight. They were targeted based upon their status with the airline, the fare they paid for their tickets, and perhaps a host of other variables. The Courier-Journal, who spoke with Bridges after the incident, reported “a manager came aboard the plane and said a computer would select four people to be taken off the flight. One couple was selected first and left the airplane” and then Dao was confronted. We all know how the rest of this part of the story ends. But it’s another element of the story I want to focus on here. 

As digitization infiltrates increasing swaths of our daily lives, we will likely see algorithms play a more defining role in our actions and activities. Algorithms often operate in the background so we will see the manifestation of these algorithms without always seeing their presence explicitly. Cultural and social norms will be upended as heuristics give way to programmatic rule. 

Algorithms are designed based upon a perception of how the world works and how it should work. Algorithms are being used to order your Facebook and Instagram feeds, pick which advertisements are served up to you and are increasingly redefining real world issues like lending decisions, prison sentencing, and police force resource allocation.

Increasingly activities that are digitized are being governed by algorithms and the implications vary. Because algorithms often learn from input data there is risk of bias transfer if the underlying data are biased. This could include income, race, geography, or any host of other underlying variables whether the variables are explicitly targeted or just correlated with something that was implicitly taken into account in past decisions that are now being utilized to train algorithms. 

While we might not recognize it, digitization is replacing randomness with codified, programmatic approaches to decision making. We need to increasingly recognize the role algorithms are now playing in decisions that might have historically been random and take a more proactive approach to ensure the outcomes being served up are the societal outcomes we desire. Random is disappearing and we have a choice in what replaces it. 

 

 

 

Through the first 90 days of 2017, nine retailers have filed for bankruptcy – as many as in all of 2016.

Year-to-date Chapter 11 filings:

  • BCBG Max Azria
  • Eastern Outfitters
  • Gordmans Stores
  • Gander Mountain
  • General Wireless Operations (formerly RadioShack)
  • HHGregg
  • Limited Stores
  • Michigan Sporting Goods Distributors
  • Wet Seal

Additionally, J.C. Penney, RadioShack, Macy’s, and Sears have each announced more than 100 store closures and Payless ShoeSource announced they would be closing over 400 stores as part of a reorganization. Ralph Lauren announced it would close its flagship Polo store on Fifth Avenue and retailers from Lululemon to Urban Outfitters to American Eagle are seeing their stock prices hit multi-year lows. All told some 4,000 stores (and perhaps more to come) were shuttered over the last 12 months and is being called a retail apocalypse. While the retail segment is highly sensitive to economic forces, traditional macroeconomic pressures don’t appear to be the driving force behind the retail apocalypse. The consumer has been the catalyst for most of our economic growth in recent years, unemployment is extremely low, gas prices are restrained, and wage growth is accelerating.

Rather than cyclical economic dynamics, structural changes appear to be at the root of the retail apocalypse. Here are seven structural drivers I see playing out right now and two bonus trends to watch in the years ahead:

  1. Inflection Point for Online Shopping. The rise of e-commerce has been putting pressure on physical retail for years. This is nothing new but I would argue it has hit an important inflection point in the last 6-12 months. E-commerce now represents roughly 9.5 percent of total retail sales. Headed into the 2016 holiday shopping season, I predicted online sales would grow 16 percent and mobile would growth by 45 percent (representing 24 percent of all online sales for the period) while overall retail would grow roughly 3.8 percent. In February, the Commerce Department reported that fourth quarter 2016 overall retail sales grew by 3.9 percent while e-commerce grew by 14.3 percent so my early forecasts where inline with final results. Deloitte recently published their annual Global Powers of Retailing report looking at the world’s 250 largest retailers to which Amazon broke into the top 10 for the first time. Amazon is the largest online apparel retailer  with “sales more than the combined online sales of its five largest online clothing competitors — Macy’s, Nordstrom, Kohl’s, Gap, and Victoria’s Secret parent L Brands.” Amazon now represents over 10 percent of the apparel retail business with total sales behind only Walmart, Macy’s, and TJX Cos. Today roughly 80 percent of U.S. households have a smartphone, 60 percent have a tablet, and some 90 percent or so of U.S. households have a tablet or some type of home computer. Home broadband dominates home internet connections, in spite of recent declines as some households switch to become mobile-only households.  Walmart, following their $3.3 billion purchase of Jet.com, is slowing physical store openings in order to invest more heavily into their online presence. PetSmart’s $3.35 billion acquisition of Chewy.com will be the biggest e-commerce acquisition in history. In fact, seven of the largest 14 acquisitions have taken place in the last 24 months.   There are all developments that have materialized in recent months. Change are accelerating not declining.
  2. Shifts to Online Shopping + Service. The shift to online shopping has also brought with it a shift towards what I’ll refer to as online shopping + service. This is still a small trend but one that is percolating in a number of retail niches. This trend is the blurring of e-commerce and curated service. We are seeing it in food delivery with companies like Blue Apron, Plated, and Hello Fresh. We are seeing it in fashion and apparel with companies like Stitch Fix, Trunk Club, and even Warby Parker – though recent results from Nordstrom-owned Trunk Club suggest the concept is still far from mainstream and mature.
  3. Growth of Two-sided Marketplaces. Related to #2, the growing prevalence and maturity of the Internet has spurred the growth of two-sided marketplaces which are exerting pressure on the demand for traditional retail space. For example, if you needed to groom or board your dog in the past you probably would have used a company with a local retail location. Today you might use an online service line Rover to a find a local boarder or groomer. These individuals are generally using their private homes and don’t maintain a retail location. These two-sided markets are allowing for the more efficient deployment of previously underutilized capital which is putting pressure on the demand for physical retail space. Platforms like Etsy offer an eclectic mix of products from a myriad of sellers – products you might have previously purchased in a physical store. One of the greatest benefits found in the emergence of online retailing is not the creation of a different distribution channel or a cheaper distribution channel. but a rather a distribution channel that can support the long tail of consumer choice. The internet fosters an environment where niche products can gain sufficient scale to survive and thrive.
  4. Shift to Services. A fourth structural change is the shift from material purchases to services like healthcare and restaurants – the so-called “restaurant renaissance.” This is also tied to the shift towards the experience economy.
  5. The Rise of the Boutique. As the masses begin to move online, the demand for locally-sourced, niche, unique retailing experiences have cropped up. At the same time we’ve seen a move way from mass shopping. As Derek Thompson noted in the Atlantic, “the U.S. has 40 percent more shopping space per capita than Canada, five times more the the U.K., and 10 times more than Germany…mall visits declined 50 percent between 2010 and 2013, according to the real-estate research firm Cushman and Wakefield.” The simultaneous move online and away from mass shopping has driven demand for boutique shopping experiences. These physical stores are generally found in urban settings and tend to have both small online footprints as well as small physical footprints. These boutiques generally offer an assortment of home and food products from local merchants that are not widely available online.  They might also offer more customized products and “small batch” products that do not scale well for broad online distribution.
  6. The End of Cheap Money. Over the last decade, retailers were able to take advantage of an era of low interest rates. Private equity investors also took retailers with small debt profiles private and then highly leveraged these positions. Rising interest rates are changing the risk profile of these retailers who will need to refinance at potentially higher rates or find ways of aggressively paying down debt burdens. Moody’s has noted that the number of distressed U.S. retailers has more than tripled since the 2008-2009 recession.
  7. The End of a Real Estate Cycle. Related to #5, I think some investments over the last cycle were more keenly focused on underlying assets like real estate than the actual underlying retail business. Rising interest rates lower the attractiveness of these type of deals and the low hanging fruit has already been picked.

Bonus trends to watch in the years ahead:

  1. The Digitization of Commerce. E-commerce has played an important role in redefining the retail experience. I believe some of the next big transformative steps for retail will materialize around the digitization of the commerce experience that is taking place inside physical stores. There has been some early exploration of beacon technology but we have yet to see wide deployment. Voice User Interfaces (VUIs) are beginning to show up in homes through Amazon Alexa and Google Home but have yet to materialize in physical retail stores. We are seeing deployment of enhanced back-end systems but the coupling of physical stores with digital platforms has yet to really materialize. Smartphone apps and relevant loyalty programs might be the glue that binds these two together – enabling stores to recognize you (your shopping history and preferences) whether you are online or in the physical store.    
  2. Autonomous Shopping. It isn’t here yet, but its building on the horizon and I think it’s coming. We are releasing digitally connected objects that can shop on our behalf. At CES for example Whirlpool launched a washer and dryer that can monitor the number of cycles you do, recognize when you are running low on supplies like detergent, and then proactively order on your behalf. Many of the Wall Street analysts I speak with today believe e-commerce might double in the coming years – jumping from 10 percent of overall retail sales to maybe 20 percent of overall sales. But I believe autonomous shopping – when machines makes purchases on our behalves – could drive online share of total retail much higher. In this environment, I wouldn’t be surprised to see online sales capture 40 percent of total retail.   

 

I stumbled upon “What the Internet cannot do” today. It was published in The Economist on August 17th, 2000 and reminded me how we used to feel about the internet.  It was the Internet back then, not the internet. It was still a proper noun so we capitalized it. It was a place we went. When was the last time you told someone you were “going on?” Back then the worldwide web, as the internet is synonymously called, was only 11 or so years old and far from ubiquitous. In 2000 home broadband was accessed by only about one percent of us. It hadn’t made its way to smartphones yet. In fact it would be another three years before the world would see its first smartphone and another seven before it would see its first iPhone.

We had grand social ambitions for the internet back then. Perhaps we were more idealistic in our views of the internet and what it could be when it grew up. We saw it robed in all of its great potential to combat inequality, cross chasms of varying sorts, foster communication and understanding, facilitate peace, ferret out injustices, and break down barriers of diverse kinds. In those early years we seemed to talk more about what the internet could be. What it should be. What it might represent and what we had to do to get it there. I wonder if we’ve lost some of that vision. At the same time, we recognize the role social platforms like Twitter and Facebook have had in massive social movements like the Arab Spring. I’m certain most of us never foresaw that potential in 2000. In some ways it would seem, the Internet is doing exactly what some thought it could never do. Do we celebrate this enough and do we double down on its potential?

The worldwide web is now in its 28th year. Its inventor, Tim Berners-Lee, penned an editorial on its birthday last month listing three things that need to change in order to “save” the web and allow it to “fulfill its true potential.” The three trends that need to be tackled according to Berners-Lee are (1) the loss of control over our personal data, (2) easy of which misinformation spreads on the web, and (3) online political advertising that needs greater transparency. I wonder if we are aiming high enough. These are all important areas that seem to dominate our view of the web today. While they certainly require further research and proactive solutions I wonder if they are sufficiently aspirational. How do they compare to the social blights we threw at the internet back when we still capitalized the I and parted from our physical lives temporarily to go online?

Do we still see the internet as a platform for peace? Do we still believe it can stymie hunger, both for liberating ideas and hunger of the physical kind. In short, are we still optimistic. The internet still feel very young to me. It is hard to imagine everything that could be invented has been invented. With 5 billion connected, we still have two to go. The next billion individuals are coming online in the next few years. Can we still remember what those first digital moments felt like for us? And can we imagine what they’ll mean for the next two billion to join us online.

 

Family dinner is the goal.

And I’m reminded of this every time I read an article hightlighting the value and parental stress imbedded within this longtime cultural ritual. With each article, I always feel the same emotions – an equal and offsetting dose of guilt and hope. 

Ethel Rohan’s article in the Washington Post is the most recent in a long list of articles that leave me believing the benefits outweigh the costs – even though it never quite feels that way. 

I’ve long said parenting is the hardest of jobs. Unlike so many things in life with its instant gratification, you only know if you’ve succeeded at parenting some 20 years after the fact. Sometimes even longer. I often think my mom is probably still wondering when it comes to me (yes, it’s still touch and go 😜). I suppose family dinner, like so many things related to parenting, will be graded in the years that lie ahead. 

But for now, without clearity into our distant future some 20 years from now, family dinner is the goal. No matter, it would seem, how painful the endeavor often feels. I do, like most I presume, often wonder if I’m doing more harm than good. And I never quite know what to require. What to insist upon. And what to give up on and give into. Balancing enforcer and merciful father. 

Of course there is no single way to do family dinner. I often think about this too. I have fond memories of family dinners consisting of microwaved TV dinners consumed, appropriately, before the family television. The mashed potatoes were always cold in the center. The cherry pie, which I never fancied much anyways, always nuked beyond recognition. A main of  Salisbury steak or Fried chicken. My sister and I would sit on our plush green carpeted floor, backs pressed against the couch, and eat our dinners together while we watched Full House or the Cosby Show or MacGyver or some other cultural force in our lives at the time. Certainly the generations before ours wouldn’t recognize this ritual by the name “family dinner.” But we loved it all the same.  

Headed into the weekend, family dinner was on my mind. It isn’t that I can’t get them to the table. They are article boys, so food is the ultimate motivator for this. But keeping them at the table for longer than 37 seconds is a struggle. A blessing on the food, for which they are always less reverent than I would prefer, is followed by a few quick bites before suddenly vanishing. Often they simply flop on the couch in the next room. Or return to the device that they “painstaking” left only minutes before. Perhaps I need to reinstitute the process of seeking, and waiting for, permission to leave the table.

Friday’s family dinner consisted of Chinese takeout – another favorite family dinner memory of my childhood I hope to pass on. We eat together at the table but it doesn’t last long. At least not as long as I would prefer. Saturday was a failure all the way around. I’m still not sure why exactly. Poor planning and poor execution I suppose. That is also true for lunch on Sunday. I discuss lunch on our drive home from church, hoping to socialize the idea. But it just doesn’t materialize as I was hoping. And when I realize, too late of course, that I’ve lost Sunday lunch, I stubbornly insist to myself that I will not lose Sunday dinner.  

I give them hours of notice – family dinner will be at 5PM – and I remind them frequently leading up to the appointed hour. Five o’clock arrives and it’s still a struggle to get them to the table. Once there however, they begin instantly to devour dinner like a pack of ravenous unfed dogs. Life with boys is fully materializing before me! And just as quickly they move to leave the table. 

I corral them back to the table. Apprehensively.Begrudgingly. The desire to flee clear in their eyes. “We’re done eating!” they contest. But family dinner, despite their focused perspective on their stomachs, has nothing to do with food as every parent will attest. And starting tonight ours is going to last longer than 37 seconds. That’s when I invite Alexa to her first family dinner. “Alexa, set a timer for 20 minutes.” Their eyes widen. “20 minutes!!!” They bemoan.

I’m sure as time goes on, Alexa’s role at our family dinners will evolve. But for now, she gets to play enforcer which lets me play conversationist. Even if our conversation is interupted a few times with the question, “Alexa, how much left on the time?!!!”

Looking forward to our next family dinner. And grateful Alexa will be joining us from here on out. 

Ten years ago today (January 9, 2007), I was cutting across the show floor of CES when I heard the news that Apple had released the original iPhone. I remember select journalists travel from CES in Vegas to San Francisco for the press conference, before returning back to CES. CES was on its second day when the Apple release was made. Few companies have ever had clout sufficient to momentarily pull reporters away from an event like CES. Apple was the only one who had it at that time.

An interesting tidbit: almost 15 years earlier to the day (January 7, 1992), Apple’s CEO at the time John Sculley announced the Apple Newton during his keynote at CES wherein he coined the term Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs).

To fully understand our view of the iPhone at the time, one should watch the original Steve Jobs keynote in its entirety.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hUIxyE2Ns8&feature=youtu.be

In the first thirty seconds of his keynote, Jobs sets the historical stage by listing some of the world shifting products Apple has introduced (1984 Macintosh and 2001 iPod). He then goes on to say:

…today, we’re introducing three revolutionary products of this class. The first one: is a widescreen iPod with touch controls. The second: is a revolutionary mobile phone. And the third is a breakthrough Internet communications device. So, three things: a widescreen iPod with touch controls; a revolutionary mobile phone; and a breakthrough Internet communications device. An iPod, a phone, and an Internet communicator. An iPod, a phone … are you getting it? These are not three separate devices, this is one device, and we are calling it iPhone. Today, today Apple is going to reinvent the phone, and here it is. No, actually here it is, but we’re gonna leave it there for now.

There are two things worth noting in the first 30 seconds of Jobs’ keynotes. First, he pulls the actual iPhone from the front pocket of his jeans and no one in the audience can even process it quickly enough to really take notice. Secondly, it’s worth reflecting on the three devices Jobs’ claims to be combining. Nowhere in this list does he include cameras. Today, the camera is a major focus of differentiation for Apple. Entire billboard campaigns are dedicated to the camera features of the iPhone. But it would appear that Steve Jobs didn’t foresee the smartphone replacing cameras, at least not in 2007.

To understand the full context around which the original iPhone was launched, consider also the first official Apple iPhone commercial. It was this one, shown for the first time during the 2007 Oscars on February 25th. It shows 28 or so clips, each with the character or actor picking up a phone and saying hello, followed by an image of the first iPhone and finishing with the text “Coming in June.” The original Apple iPhone was first and foremost a telephony device. In his keynote, Jobs says, “We wanna reinvent the phone…Now, what’s the killer app?…The killer app is making calls!” And I think most of us forget that visual voicemail didn’t exist until the iPhone was created.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Bvfs4ai5XU

Apple officially released the iPhone in June 2007 and would go on to sell about 1.4 million units in that first year, compared to over 200 million in 2016. More than a year after the original iPhone went on sale, Apple would launch the App Store in conjunction with the release of iPhone OS 2.0 in July 2008. With this, Apple officially introduced third-party app development and distribution to the iPhone platform. Apple would go on to sell 10 million iPhones in 2008, with seven million being sold in the September quarter alone. Steven Levy has a good write-up on his recent conversation with Phil Schiller about Apple’s early internal debate regarding the openness of the iPhone. He writes:

Yet Schiller pushed back when I suggested that the iPhone’s great moment came when Apple threw open the gates to developers and we learned that for every imaginable activity, as well as some previously unimaginable ones, there was “an app for that.”

“That undervalues how earth-shattering the iPhone was when it first came to market, and we all first got them and fell in love with them,” he says. “iPhone made the idea of a smartphone real. It really was a computer in your pocket. The idea of real internet, real web browser, MultiTouch. There were so many things that are core to what is the smartphone today, that created a product that customers fell in love with, that then also demanded more stuff on them, more apps.”

Still, it is difficult to imagine the iPhone would have ever achieved the success it did without the accelerant of the App Store.

And still we have a very long way to go. Today about two billion people have smartphones, while another three billion or so have non-smart cellular phones. In just the last 24 months or so, smartphones have eclipsed traditional PCs as the most pervasive Internet-enabled platform. Today there are two billion in the world that are not connected. While we generally still see smartphones as the mechanism by which we connect the next billion, in the last 24 months we’ve witnessed the advent and acceleration of Amazon Alexa, which like the original iPhone, is a new iterative combination of hardware and service and connection. Perhaps voice interfaces platforms will enable us to bring the final two billion online. Either way, the next 10 years are sure to be interesting.

I love reflection and especially the reflection that bookends a calendar year. The ruminating, meditating, thoughtful examination of the previous year colliding with the hopeful, optimistic, anticipatory dreams of what tomorrow will bring. I like taking stock, and recommitting to a better me living in a tomorrow that I try to make better. The traditional New Year’s examination gives me both of those. My son Gavin (9) asked why there was so much hoopla around two minutes of celebrating. Why there were hours of build-up that dissipates almost instantly. But in those two minutes we close the past and turn to the future as we look hopefully towards what lies ahead.

I start with two quotes to set the tone. The first from Emerson:

“Finish every day and be done with it. You have done what you could. Some blunders and absurdities no doubt creep in; forget them as soon as you can. Tomorrow is a new day; begin it well and serenely and with too high a spirit to be cumbered with your old nonsense.

And the second from a talk Jeffery Holland gave at BYU in 2009. I’ve read this talk twice in the last day or two and find it chockablock full of insight and wisdom worthy of reflection – especially at New Year’s. I actually read it to my boys on New Year’s Day, unfortunately with no perceived success. It was sadly lost on them (was it George Bernard Shaw that said “youth is wasted on the young??”)

“as a new year starts and we try to benefit from a proper view of what has gone before, I plead with you not to dwell on days now gone, nor to yearn vainly for yesterdays, however good those yesterdays may have been. The past is to be learned from but not lived in. We look back to claim the embers from glowing experiences but not the ashes. And when we have learned what we need to learn and have brought with us the best that we have experienced, then we look ahead, we remember that faith is always pointed toward the future. Faith always has to do with blessings and truths and events that will yet be efficacious in our lives. So a more theological way to talk about Lot’s wife is to say that she did not have faith. She doubted the Lord’s ability to give her something better than she already had. Apparently she thought—fatally, as it turned out—that nothing that lay ahead could possibly be as good as those moments she was leaving behind.

Let me start first with a quick recap of some 2016 accomplishments.

In 2015 I climbed my first 14er and fell in love. It was the perfect simile for the mountains I was climbing in my own life.  There are 53 peaks in Colorado that are over 14,000 feet and another 14 in California and Washington for a total of 67 14ers in the Continental United States. It is my hope to climb them all.

After putting 2015 behind me, it felt fitting to start 2016 atop mountains. I made my first two winter ascents in the first days of 2016, finding myself on one of the highest peaks in the country. There is a beautiful juxtaposition between summiting physical mountains and ascending figurative ones. In many ways, I find myself today on a higher plane than at any point in my life. And I see the peaks – both distant and near, real and metaphoric – that I’m aiming for. I followed my January summits with a climb in November, a day after the first snowfall. I summited Mount Harvard and now have 10 of the 67 summits under my belt. I’m looking to climb 2-6 14ers in 2017.

After running my first marathon in October 2015, followed by my second in November 2015, I went on to run 6 marathons in 2016 (Washington DC, Big Sur, San Francisco, Venice Italy, New York City, and Singapore). Running 6 marathons in a year was never my intent – it just, well, sorta happened. I know what you are thinking, “marathons don’t just happen!” One of the highlights was running the Big Sur marathon with the Move For Hunger team and fundraising in their support. I forgot how much I love fundraising for worthy causes, and I think Move For Hunger has one of the most worthy missions. I don’t want to run as many marathons in 2017, but I’m looking at North Korea (yes…I know), Cuba, Chicago, and maybe one other one.

I did my first triathlon in 2016. Miserable! I thought I was going to drown through the entire swim. It took me half way through bike to catch my breath. In 2016, I also did my first Gran Fondo (finished dead last – Woot!), followed by a second in September. I biked roughly 860 miles and ran 715 miles in 2016. In all my miles I thought often of the lyrics for the Avett Brothers song “The Weight of Lies”: “So, when you run make sure you run to something and not away from.” As the last pillars of my marriage dissolved in 2013, I did a lot of running away. In 2016, for the first time in a long time, I finally felt like I was running towards something instead of away. I hope to do 2-3 tris in 2017, perhaps one of which can be longer. I’d also like to do a few Gran Fondos.

New countries in 2016 included Bosnia, Montenegro, and Albania. All visited with my three sons. Those three boys are my everything. The trip wasn’t perfect. Definitely a few things I wish I could have done differently. A few things I’d like to redo. I still find myself constantly praying the trip will be a fond memory for each of them. In the coming months I’ll try to post more about this trip. New countries I’m eyeing for 2017: North Korea (yes…I know), Cuba, Iceland, and Aruba. But who knows where the tide will take me.

One of the highlights of 2016 for me was my 40th birthday. I spent my 40th birthday sleeping on our trampoline with my three boys. A milestone birthday came and went and there is no other way I would’ve wanted to spend it than with my sons. The highlight of my birthday was spending it with them. It will be a birthday I will forever remember and always cherish because in many ways it was nothing more than the best of a very normal day with my sons.

Now onto some of the things I learned in 2016.

1) Process Matters.  In 2016 I learned that process matters. Maybe not as much as outcome, but very very close to it. This was a lesson I’ve long needed to internalize. I have, for a very long time, burned the proverbial candle at both ends. For a decade plus, I was able to do this mostly successfully. There were hints and flashes of crashing and burning, but in the end, for the most part, I delivered. And my, at-times, chaotic process was tolerated by others because the end product was valued. In 2016, and to an extent 2015, this all collided and I learned the hard lesson that no matter how great or grand the deliverable is, a messy process can negate much of the value created. In 2016, I focused less exclusively on what I delivered, and looked more collectively at what I delivered together with the process in which I delivered it. I made concerted efforts to hone the process in an attempt to minimize stress placed on others.

2) Make Time for Self-Discovery. I think I’ve had four major periods of self-discovery in my life. The first was my freshman year of college in Hawaii. I imagine college, especially the freshman year, is a period of self-discovery for many. I think mine was magnified by the distance I placed between myself and home and the time I was able to spend in nature. Hawaii can be very slow (Island Time) which also helps facilitate time for self-discovery. This period was followed by the two years I spent living in the Netherlands as a Mormon missionary. Recently, I’ve started going back through the thousands of pages I wrote in my journal during those 24 months. It’s been interesting to see themes that remain constant in my life still today. I seem to have been haunted then, as perhaps I still am, with a feeling that I simply come up short. I fail my own expectations of myself – whether seemingly high or not. And it’s always followed by a doubling down to do more and try harder tomorrow.

The third period of self-discovery was the period during which I studied in the Middle East followed by the months I wandered around East, Central, and Southern Europe in the late 1990s. This area was under tremendous change at the time, as it shed its former identify and reached for independence. I had very little money which ultimately augmented my experience. I wandered where the tide took me. I slept in parks and fields, in the homes of strangers and of newly found friends. I slept in a field near Dracula’s castle, under willow tree in Hyde Park, and even spent a night in the double bunk of a semi-trailer truck after I hitched a ride across France. I thought often of George Orwell while he was Down and Out in Paris and London.

And then, after this third period of self-discovery, I spent the next 15 years doing what most spend their lifetime doing. I graduated college, got married, had kids, added graduate degrees. Tried to build the proverbial “career” and make it a successful one. In general, I tried to keep up and make the sacrifices that seemed to be the right ones at the time. I was living life, or something like it.

One of the many great things to come out of my divorce was the chance to once again make self-discovery a priority. In 2016 I learned more about myself as an individual than I have for well over a decade. This was driven by a number of factors including slowing down and focusing and optimizing on the things I value most in life. Perhaps in the  coming months I’ll write more about what I’ve learned about myself.

3) There is Beauty and Power in Being Vulnerable. I have found beauty in vulnerability over the last two years – both in being vulnerable to others and in being receptive to the vulnerability that others show me. I have had amazing conversations in the last year because I was receptive to the vulnerability of others. Some of the people I have grown to admire the most are people I didn’t even know a few years ago. My first marriage lacked vulnerability completely. When I think of the non-negotiables of romantic relationships, vulnerability is at the top of the list.

4) Optimize on What Matters. 2015 was a year filled with a tremendous amount of change as we formalized the dissolution of our marriage. I remember a specific moment wherein I was facing a long series of decisions and I was struggling to determine which of all of the good choices were the best. Moreover, many of choices were tightly interwoven so one decision here would impact another decision over there. Wise counsel from my oldest brother helped me to realize that I needed to identify one or two core priorities and then optimize all of my decisions around those priorities. From there, I could let all of the other choices fall around that single priority. My three boys are the most important thing to me. They far exceed anything else in my life. Whenever I’m faced with options, decisions, and alternatives I simply optimize on them. This simple decision tree has fundamentally changed how I see the world and how I decide between many good choices. I’m not perfect, but optimizing decisions on them helps me overcome decision paralysis and also brings with it a tremendous amount of peace that I am doing all I can.            

5) Be Present. I think I’ve always made efforts to be present, but I really saw the beauty and significance of this over the last year – especially as it relates to my kids. Good luck to anyone trying to get ahold of me when my boys are with me. I often put my phone in a drawer in my bedroom when they are. Related to this, I made one simple change in my life in 2016 that has made a tremendous difference in allowing me to be present – I set my phone to “Do Not Disturb” from 9PM to 5AM. It’s awesome! My phone doesn’t ring. I’m less likely to notice texts. I’m able to be present. Over the last year I volunteered as much as I could in my boys school and found tremendous joy doing so. I try to have lunch with them once a week. At one point, my ex-wife called me “Mr. Volunteer.” She was being pejorative. And in that moment I realized in the insults of my ex-wife are some of the greatest complements a guy could ever hope for.

6) You Can’t Push Again the Wind. One of the most valuable, and beautiful pieces of advice I received in the last year was that “you can’t push against the wind.” I didn’t fully understand this at first, but overtime I’ve come to realize the power and wisdom of this advice. We all have in our life distractors, those people who are critical of us and seek to find fault in what we say or do. They might be former spouses or someone else that we can’t fully get out of our lives for a wide array of reasons. These individuals feel compelled to send derogatory texts or emails. They say belittling things. They seek to degrade, demean, and disparage. Nothing we can say or do in response will stymie their crude, coarse, commentary on our lives. They, and their comments, are the wind. You can’t push against the wind. You can’t stop the wind from blowing. But its’ blowing has no bearing on you and eventually, though it might take decades, it will blow itself out.

7) Write Your Narrative. Michael Lewis said, “I get such pleasure out of knowing that I’m lucky. It also allows me to assume that I will continue to be lucky. I am creating a narrative of my life, and it makes me braver and less fearful.” I have similar feelings, though I think I would be inclined to replace “lucky” with “blessed” and in place of feeling “braver” I’d say it makes me feel “greater peace.” I think we have more control over our stories – especially the chapters that lie ahead – than we allow ourselves to realize.

8) Love Unconditionally. After a year-long battle with a rare brain tumor, Josiah Lanier died in May 2016 at the tender age of 10. He touched thousands of people and his life left a giant wake in this world. I’m not sure a day goes by that I don’t think about him. In the final weeks and months of his life, I would carry him up my stairs when he would visit my house. He possessed deep, profound humility unmatched by anyone I have ever met. I’ll never forget the last time he visited my house, and the feeling I had after carrying him downstairs, that it would be his last visit there. I went back inside and falling to the floor, bawled until I couldn’t breathe. Josiah’s life taught me what unconditional love looks like. I saw it in his father, dressed in a matching superhero outfit. I saw it in his mother, when she’d lean in to hear and ascertain his needs. I saw it in the thousands of people who were touched by Josiah’s life. By people who donated time and money and talents to Josiah and his family. And I saw it in Josiah himself. They he would give his precious time to others. He would allow people to visit him and to ask how he was doing. He’d allow adults to talk to him, in the horrible way that adults talk, something no 10 year-old likes to do. He showed constant compassion and deep unconditional love.

9) Our Emotions and Our Actions are Choices. Be Kind. Be Grateful. In 2016, I saw clearly our emotions and our actions are both choices dictated by free will and agency. We choose how we feel and how we respond. I want to choose kindness, gratitude, and ultimately happiness. Happiness is a choice. Maybe it starts with gratitude. Gratitude and kindness together with humility and acceptance. And in the end, we can choose happiness.

10) Be Prepared. Yes, I channeled my inner Boy Scout in 2016. Take time. Have the right gear. Know when to ask for help before a series of mistakes ends with that final fatal mistake that so often follows a series of errors. Take a few minutes to prepare.

Yes, we’ve had a few years we’ve called “The Year of Video” and yes I think 2017 will be importantly different than those other years. In the past, when we talked about the “Year of Video,” we were primarily focused on existing video content. But I see subtle changes taking place this year not about existing video content but rather video infiltrating areas of media consumption that haven’t traditionally had much video content.

In the middle of a week, a few weeks ago, I found myself in New York City spending the day with some of the top tech journalists on the planet. The day included a CES Facebook Live chat among other video conversations I took part in. Every journalist and editor I spoke with, without exception, said they are experimenting with video and plan to do even more in 2017. All agreed the views totals make it a difficult medium to overlook but also recognize the inherent difficulty in monetizing the engagement.

I think the shift to video is happening everywhere. Static pictures are morphing into video clips with Live Photo. Snapchat’s platform creates the semblance of video by stringing static pictures and short video clips together. In 2016 Instagram followed suite by creating Instagram Stories. I’m increasingly seeing 360 degree photos embedded into online articles. When read on touchscreens, you can use your finger to move the photo around in order to view different parts of the image, or on mobile devices like your phone, you can simply move your phone around to see different part of the 360 degree image.

And yes, VR will also help accelerate shifts toward video consumption in 2017 and beyond (with an emphasis on the beyond part). Sure there are plenty who were underwhelmed with VR in 2016, but I have to wonder what their expectations were. We have to remember just how nascent this technology is. At the start of 2016 we didn’t even anticipate some of the core hardware would be available before the final weeks of the year (read: PlayStation VR). How high could realistic expectations have been?

For the most part, 2016 was the year of VR hardware and the leading hardware manufacturers delivered as promised. We have a very long ways to go (read: years). But there is a tremendous amount of investment currently flowing into VR content creation. More, whenever I’ve taken VR into classrooms, students are blown away by the experience. The K through 12 cohorts are increasingly accustomed to a 360 degree experience thanks to platforms like Mindcraft. Video everywhere, and VR content alike, will be natural extensions of what they are accustomed to.

 

Here’s my annual tech rendition of ‘Twas the Night Before Christmas.

A recording can be found here

‘twas the night before Christmas
and in all through the house
there were computers a plenty
but not many a mouse

It’s the end of the year
Another one’s done
So light the yule log
And lets have some fun

2016 was an election year
we’ll surely remember
a flurry of tweets and attacks
until we finally reached November

Make America Great Again
Was a slogan for many
Red hats were adorned
And the memes were aplenty

We relied on online polls
that showed Clinton for the win
but when we woke the next day
the headlines left many, scratching their chin

from Ken Bone in his red sweater
who asked a simple question
to Beyonce who released Lemonade
With lyrics that showed little discretion

And Adele did carpool karaoke
To viral success
While fake news spread across the Internet
Leaving us all very depressed

The end of a year…
Or was it an episode of Black Mirror?
Between scary clowns and the Zika Virus
2016 was filled with some terror

But much in tech is bringing rejoicing
like Pokemon Go that got us up moving
And now when it comes to video games
And even mom is approving

Online shopping stole Black Friday
As we bought on mobile devices
Your stockings will surely be filled
With tech bought at very low prices

And sure smartphone sales are slowing
and tablets sales have fallen off
but 4K TVs continue to do well
while drones and VR are beginning to take off

In a back and forth battle
Apple took on the FBI
To ensure your data remains encrypted
and away from prying eyes

Apple also launched a new iPhone
Now available in matte black
But can someone tell me why oh why
they had to remove the old headphone jack?

We lost some of the greats
like Andy Grove and Prince
But we gained back Alec Baldwin
And have been laughing ever since

It was the year of the Olympics
And the year of Facebook live
Chewbacca Mom had us smiling
And she didn’t even have to try

Bumble, tinder, and others
Had us swiping left and right
But when it came to digital dating
Netflix and chill stole the night

Stranger Things had us rooting for L
While scared of the upside down
We all left craving frozen egos
And wandering why no one seemed to cared that Barb wasn’t around

Vocal computing became all the rage
As Alexa moved in
And when it came to the Mannequin challenge
Those who held motionless would win

So let bygones be bygones
Its soon time to ring in the new year
Forget yesterday’s mistakes
And pull your loved ones near

2017 is looking bright
don’t be filled with remorse
if you didn’t win this year
there’s always next year of course

Do more and be better than you were in 16
shout in the streets and down the halls
a very Merry Merry
Merry Christmas to All!