The WSJ reported Barnes and Nobles is upping the ante on the Nook – giving it 2,000+ square feet of showroom in 40+ stores. That represents nearly 10% of the average store size.
It should come as no surprise that in-game product placement is growing (remember Obama was the first presidential candidate to use in-game advertising/placement). Gaming has grown into a major media source and perhaps it is more surprising that in-game placement is more pronounced. However, a note from this portfolio.com article on game consoles and advertising also tells another important video game evolution. Michael del Castillo writes,
One of the more successful examples of such pairing of corporations with games is Jeep and Call of Duty. The pairing is twofold. An actual Jeep Wrangler called Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 Edition and a virtual Jeep Wrangler in the game. While on the prowl for bad guys, one of the 20 or so vehicles you can “borrow” is such a Jeep. The “elegant” part of this endorsement is that not just anyone can access the vehicle. It has to be unlocked, and figuring out the secret to doing so gives game players a sense of exclusivity.
If a vehicle manufacturer is finding gaming audience an appropriate target audience, it suggests the gaming demographic is getting older.
Most interesting quote from the article:
“The [Xbox] platform has shifted from 10 years ago, when it was 80 percent game play, to now when it’s about 40 percent game play,” said Jeff Plaisted, director of Microsoft’s mobile advertising sales and strategy.
There are (at least) two major short-comings to today’s forecasting approaches. First, forecasters are using increasingly narrow definitions so they aren’t seeing things in the broader context. Secondly (and related), forecasters largely fail to look beyond what is seen – many of today’s forecasts are just projections of the current state of affairs. Taken together, today’s forecasters are missing the broader landscape of innovation that is taking place.
It is important to remember that adoption of innovation – whether it is consumer adoption or enterprise adoption – follows s-shaped power law curves. Growth isn’t linear. Adoption typically starts very slowly and remains low for an extended period (ie several years). After several years of low to no adoption, grow accelerates at an accelerating rate (positive 2nd derivative) for an extended period. Eventually adoption slows – the 2nd derivative turns negative followed by the 1st derivative turning negative.
This is where today’s analysts tend to stop. The drive towards specialization forces forecasters to focus on very narrow definitions. Analysts tend to take a micro approach to forecasts and focus only on single s-shaped adoption curves. They look at things in isolation. They look at markets in two states – growing or shrinking.
In reality, developments materialize over long stretches of time and typically overlap other trends. A single s-shape adoption curve will beget dozens or even hundreds of other s-shape adoption curves. In this way, innovation is much larger in aggregate than forecasters convey with their narrowly-defined forecasts. We think in narrow terms. In reality innovation follows k-waves as opposed to standard normal curves. More, k-waves overlap. Because these developments occur over long periods of time most companies are typically able to adjust to the evolutionary process of adoption. They are able to move to areas with positive 2nd derivatives, while abandoning areas with negative 1st derivatives. This transition doesn’t always happen smoothly, but it does happen naturally. But the desired immediate applicability of forecasts fails to accurately account for this evolutionary process.
Lately I’ve been thinking about bucket lists. Thought I’d put together my bucket list here:
[table id=16 /]
A friend sent me this Bernie Madoff “Bank.” You can see in the photo that the only way to get your money out is to actually break his head.
Some are predicting store traffic will fall (again) this year.
Spectrum Crunch Infographic.
Reports that Microsoft is planning a 2013 launch for their next Xbox console – implying the end of the 7th generation which will have lasted 6 years as opposed to the historical 5.
A recent study by Retrevo found 43% of smartphone owners have installed and used a retailer’s app, but only 14% of those who installed them say the app helped them buy something.
A recent study by the NRF found similiar results, “Among smartphone owners, nearly one-third (31 percent) will research products and/or compare prices, 14.1 percent will purchase products, 17.3 percent will redeem coupons, and 15.6 percent will use apps to research or purchase items this holiday season.”
eBay is expecting mobile to play a large role this Holiday season. eBay’s CEO John Donahoe recently said, “I think you’ll see a mobile commerce Christmas, which is on the way to a completely blended commerce world.”
No surprise, tablet owners are the most active mobile devices when it comes to mCommerce.
I’ve been asked on numerous occassions if consumers have an allegiance to their mobile OS. For example, do/will consumers buy a tablet based on the OS of their mobile phone. Given the strong tablet market share controlled by Apple’s iPad the answer has been mixed – iPad owners with an iPhone look like they have an allegiance, while iPad owners with non-iOS phones look like they have less allegiance.
Here is some recent survey research, suggesting mobile OS is becoming more important. The study found “the percentage of those who decide on a phone based solely upon the OS leapt to 18% in the four weeks ending 10 July 2011, up from 12% six months previously. The importance of handset brands meanwhile, slipped back from 27% to 20%, and 50% of customers now consider both factors when choosing a smartphone.”