Thoughts on Cloud-based Gaming 0

An increasing number of devices are becoming connected. CEA estimates some 350 million connected devices will sell in 2012. At the same time, broadband is becoming more pervasive.  in 2000 only about four percent of U.S. households had broadband connectivity.  Today, the bulk of homes with Internet access have broadband.

With these two trends squarely footed, expect to see a host of related services launch that take advantage of the new found connectivity on these devices and the omnipresence of the Internet .  One area many believe is ripe for competition (and the innovator’s dilemma) is the video game segment.  According to CEA Research, about 52 percent of all U.S. households have at least one game console so there is very broad adoption across households. OnLive was one of the pioneers in the cloud-delivered gaming space and others like LG, AT&T, Verizon, and Time Warner Cable are preparing to make a push into the service area.

Digital Decade: Using Data to Set Ticket Prices 0

Last week I began looking for tickets for the weekend NLDS series between the Nationals and the Atlanta Braves.  The Braves of course were subsequently knocked out in the elimination Wild Card game against the St. Louis Cardinals and now the Nationals are playing the St Louis Cardinals in St. Louis.  But in looking for tickets in Atlanta, I noticed that Atlanta has implemented Demand Based Pricing.  You can read more here.

Here is a screenshot of the FAQs.

With large troves of data, I imagine most event ticketing will move to demand-based pricing.

 

Holiday 2012: Part V 0

I’ve being covering the holiday outlook here:

Holiday 2012: Part I
Holiday 2012: Part II
Holiday 2012: Part III
Holiday 2012: Part IV

NRF released a holiday sales forecast of 4.1 percent for 2012. This is below the 5.6 percent growth seen in 2011, but is above the 10-year holiday sales growth average of 3.5%. NRF also expects retailers will hire between 585,000 and 625,000 seasonal workers, compared with the 607,500 seasonal employees hired last year.

CitiGroup believes online holiday sales will increase at least 20 percent.  The article included a few good statistics. CitiGroup expects mobile-aided online shopping will have a limited impact on holiday shopping.  Mobile retail is expected to grow from $10 billion this year to $31 billion in 2016.  By 2016, seven percent of total online sales will come through mobile devices – up from three percent in 2012 according to Forrester Research. total online-retail sales accounts for about seven percent of total retail sales. sales through social networks will increase 93 percent from $1 billion last year.

A survey from CouponCabin.com and Harris Interactive find  nine percent of respondents are very likely to purchase items on layaway this holiday season with another 29 percent saying they might. Fifty-four percent said layaway helps them buy larger items they couldn’t afford to buy all at once, 52 percent said it helps with budgeting, 46 percent said it helps them avoid using credit card. 43 percent said it helps to with planning ahead and 43 percent like being able to reserve a popular item.

 Target announced their top 20 toys (Walmart and Toys”R”Us previously released their top holiday toys list as I covered in my previous holiday posts).  Target has also added QR codes so shoppers can scan the toy in-store, buy online, and have it shipped for free.   Target also introduced a new tool to create and share wish lists.

Toys”R”Us announced they will price-match in-store competitors or lower online prices available on Toysrus.com or Babiesrus.com.  Toys”R”Us also announced the launch of a new digital entertainment service.

A recent Booz & Company survey covered in Strategy+Business provides a few insights on the upcoming holiday season:

  1. Sixty-one percent of consumers say they have “learned to live with less” (up from 53 percent last year).
  2. Consumers are expecting bargains: 73 percent of consumers expect to find great deals this season (up from 62 percent last year).
  3. Fifty-three percent intend to buy at least one luxury item (up from 41 percent last year).
  4. Sixty-one percent expect to get together with family this year (up from 54 percent last year), and they are looking forward to throwing more parties: 53 percent expect to host multiple gatherings for family, friends, and neighbors (up from 45 percent last year).
  5. Forty-two percent of consumers reporting they intend to buy clothing as gifts (up from 37 percent last year). Consumers appear to be inclined to buy apparel later than they did last year — many waiting until well after Black Friday.
  6. Thirty-eight percent of consumers have electronics at the top of their personal wish lists. Tablets and smartphones top the list of those wanting electronics.
  7. Interest for home entertainment also appears strong – 62 percent of respondents report that they will be shopping for these items.
  8. As CEA has reported on in recent years, downloadable gifts are growing. More than 45 percent of shoppers expect to give at least one downloadable gift this year.
  9. More than 80 million shoppers plan to purchase gift cards this year, about 4 percent more than last year.
  10. Booz reported 40 percent of consumers now describe showcasing (ie showrooming) as their shopping strategy.  Booz believes multichannel shopping will also increasing in popular.
  11. thirty-two percent of shoppers are proactively planning to regift.  Thirty-one percent of shoppers view regifting as an acceptable form of gift giving (versus 25 percent last year).

 Booz also offered several suggestions to retailers. Here are a few that I think are relevant:

  1. Develop seamless digital and physical experiences.  Retailers continue to approach their online and brick and mortar stores as separate business lines, but consumers view these as the same business/retailer.
  2. Offer “buy-it-now” promotions at the shelf to turn browsers into buyers or to drive customers in your store to your website.
  3. Ensure sales associates are intimately familiar with the company’s website and mobile offerings (such as apps) so that they can help customers navigate between all retail channels in real time. As Booz writes, “in a multichannel world, nothing alienates a consumer more than a blank stare from a salesperson in response to “Well, on your website it says…”

 

Holiday 2012: Part IV 0

This is my fourth installment on the 2012 Holiday season.  You can see my previous comments here, here, and here.

Christmas stocking is underway (and had been more weeks in some cases).  The Consumerist has photos of Christmas displays going up in some Kohl’s and Walmart stores as early as September 21st.

As I wrote in my earlier posts – expect political advertising to crowd out some/most holiday advertising. This will be especially true in the battleground states.  Following the election (and with the presumption that there are no hanging chad-like issues), expect the media (and advertising) to shift swiftly to the holiday selling season.  Ad Age recently reported on the same thoughts.

Imports trending higher? Came across an older note on imports trending up headed into the holiday season.  I need to check where these figures are today and see how consumer tech imports are looking, but rising imports are frequently tied to discretionary purchases and are a positive sign of a consumer willing to spend.

The collective bargaining agreement between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) which was set to expire on September 30th, has been extended for 90 days so talks can continue. This will hopefully avert potential port strikes in 14 East and Gulf Coast ports during the crucial holiday season. While the East Coast ports aren’t as important for consumer tech as the West Coast ports, any backlog during the holiday season has the potential to hurt holiday sales.

Toys”R”Us recently announced they plan to hire 45,000 seasonal workers this holiday. That figure is up from 40,000 hired during the 2011 holiday season.

Macy’s announced they would hire 80,000 seasonal workers – up 2.5 percent from last year.

I wrote previously about ShopperTrak’s estimate that retail sales for consumer electronics and appliances would be up in 2012, but would not grow as fast as overall retail.  They also estimate store traffic will be lower by eight percent.  They credit this to more “targeted shopping excursions and the continued migration to e-commerce.”  A continued move to e-commerce is logical enough, but I actually wonder if online-to-in-store-pick-up will be more pronounced this year.  I also wonder if shoppers will be out more in general.  As attitudes improve, consumers should be more inclined to “browse” and window-shop.

Deloitte is out with their holiday predictions. They are predicting holiday retail sales will be up 3.5-4 percent which is below last year’s rate of 5.9 percent. Like ShopperTrak, Alison Paul of Deloitte did suggest consumers might reduce trips to the store in response to higher gas prices.  I need to check where miles driven are right now.  I’m not sure it has declined recently in the face of higher gasoline prices.

Deloitte also believes mobile-influenced retail store sales will account for 5.1 percent, or $36 billion, of this year’s holiday retail sales.

 

 

Holiday 2012: Part III 0

My first two posts on the 2012 holiday season can be found here and here.

News out this week suggests things are looking “ok” as we head toward the holiday season.  I recognize the term “ok” is not a highly technical term, but I’ll publish my finalized retail sales forecast shortly and I don’t want to say “great,” because I think there are still many headwinds of which I’ll write more about in a future post. But first, onto some of the recent news that helps paint a picture of how the holiday season is shapping up.

Walmart announced plans to boost season hiring in 2012. Walmart plans to hire more than 50,000 seasonal associates which is up slightly from 2011.Target plans to hire 90,000 seasonal employees which is down just slightly from the 92,000 seasonal staff it hired in 2011. Kohl’s plans to hire 52,000 seasonal workers in 2012.  hhgregg plans to hire 1,000 seasonal employees and complete those seasonal hires by early October.

A recent survey by Snagajob finds more season jobs will be available this holiday season than in any of the previous five years. The survey found  63 percent of hiring managers will make hires this holiday season, the highest percentage in the Snagajob five-year survey and up 12 percentage points from last year (51 percent).  The hiring managers surveyed expect to hire 6.1 seasonal workers on average – a 50 percent increase over 2011 and a nearly 100 percent increase over 2009. According to the study, among the hiring managers who will be hiring, 57 percent expect to complete their hiring by the end of October. The same figure was 46 percent in 2011 which might suggest companies are expecting to satisfy their seasonal hiring earlier this year. The survey found nearly half (49 percent) of the seasonal positioned fulfilled will be for full-time hires.

The push to have seasonal hiring largely complete by October could suggest an early push to holiday promotions as I mentioned in my previous posts.  It could also be designed to get these new hires educated and trained in advance of the real holiday push in November and December.

Expect to see an expansion of retail storefronts this holiday season. This will keep retail continuously in front of consumers and within easy reach which should help contribute to positive retail sales this holiday season.  But it could also mean that retail sales dollars are spread across more retailers putting pressure on metrics like same-stores sales.  Best Buy plans to open 33 additional Mobile Best Buy stores in October and November. Microsoft is planning to open over 30 pop-up stores for the holiday season.

As I wrote about in my first two installments on 2012 holiday predictions, online versus brick-and-mortar is going to be an important battlefield in 2012. For the next three months, multichannel is the operative word.  Walmart announced this week that it would discontinue carrying the (Amazon) Kindle.  Target announced the same policy a few months ago. LG recently announced it would implement a new unilateral pricing policy (UPP) for LG-branded goods sold online.  LG noted that certain high-end products, such as the recently announced 84-inch 4K LCD TV and most-likely the 55-inch OLED TV still slated for introduction later this year, will not be available for online distribution. These moves by Walmart and LG together with moves by other manufacturers and retailers, have different purposes but all come down to the desire of manufacturers and retailers to differentiate the roles of online retail and brick-and-mortar retail – especially this holiday season. Related to all of this, comScore published research last week showing four in five smartphone users accessed retail content on their smartphone devices in July. Topping this list was Amazon with an audience of 49.6 million visitors, followed by eBay (32.6 million visitors) Apple (17.7 million visitors), Wal-Mart (16.3 million visitors), Target (10 million visitors) and Best Buy (7.2 million visitors).

Finally, last week Booz & Co. unveiled holiday-related research and predictions for 2012 holiday season. Related to the battlefield between online and brick-and-mortar, Booz found 40 percent of of surveyed consumers consider browsing in-store before buying online their shopping strategy. Many of their findings are consistent my previously posted predictions:

  1. consumers remain skittish – 52 percent of consumers will closely consider affordability in their shopping decisions
  2. consumer expect deals – 73 percent of consumers expect to find great deals this season, compared with 62 percent last year
  3. gift cards rule – More than 80 million shoppers plan to purchase gift cards this season, about 4 percent more than last year
  4. Consumers will give digital media this year (something CEA captured research on during the 2011 holiday season).  Some 45 percent of consumers expect to give at least one downloadable gift (i.e., an e-book, a music download or a movie)
  5. Fifty-three percent of consumers intend to buy at least one luxury item (up from 41 percent last year)
  6. Consumers are looking forward to the holiday more than last year; 53% expect to host multiple gatherings, compared with 45% last year

Booz & Co. also outlined the important role multichannel retailing is going to have in 2012. The report provided a laundry list of approaches retailers could take.

A few Recent MEMs Applications 0

I’m a big fan of MEMs and have written frequently about the sensorization of consumer tech.  I recently came across two interesting applications.  The first is Twine and the second is GreenGoose.

Twine is a “wireless sensor block tightly integrated with a cloud-based service.” Twine has WiFi, an internal temperature sensor and accelerometer (for vibration and orientation detection). You can also add additional external sensors. You then set the rules which in turn trigger messages.  When a rule is triggered, a message is sent.  Something like, “WHEN the moisture sensor gets dry THEN  text “the plant needs water.”

 

GreenGoose produces a variety of sensor kits for things like children toothbrushes.  The sensors communicate with a base station which then causes a playful, dancing monkey on the related app to respond.

The Impact of the iPhone5 on the US Economy 0

J.P. Morgan’s chief economist, Michael Feroli, estimated sales of the iPhone5 could boost annualized GDP growth in calendar Q4 by 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points.  You can read more here.

Android Building Among Teen Smartphone Owners 0

Nielsen recently announced that the majority of teens now own smartphones.  Fifty-eight percent of teens now own a smartphone – up from 36 percent in 2011.  What is perhaps most interesting, is the strength of Android devices among this audience.  According to the same data, 59 percent of teens adopting smartphones in the last three months have acquired an Android smartphone.  That compares 33 percent for iOS.

smartphone-gfx

History Lesson: HDTV to 4K 0

On August 6, 1998 the first HDTV was sold in San Diego.  It was sold by Tom Campbell, who was then Corporate Director at DOW Stereo/Video.  (Footnote: DOW Stereo/Video would later be bought by Ken Crane’s and Tom Campbell would become Corporate Director of Ken Crane’s.  Ken Crane’s ceased operations and liquidated in the summer of 2010 after 60 years.)

The first HDTVs sold by DOW on that Thursday in August was the 56-inch Panasonic PT-56WXF90 which was described as a “56-inch-on-the-diagonal, cinema-style wide-screen” television. It cost $5,499 and was sold to DOW by Panasonic’s then Television Director, Bill Mannion.  DOW was the first store to have HDTVs for sale and those first  HDTVs were bought by Ed David with the second and third sets going to Bruce Colby (mentioned in the Newsweek piece) and Alan Farewell who was then general manager of the Hyatt Hotel in La Jolla.

Since this time, there have been many firsts sold.  The first DVD player, the first digital camera, the first mobile phone, the first iPhone. Later this year, the first 4K or Ultra HD television sets will make their US introduction. LG plans to sell an 84-inch 4K TV for $20K ($19,999 MSRP to be exact) which it will release in October 2012. It is currently available in Korea.  A month later, Sony’s 4K TV (also 84-inch) which make it’s US debut at $25K.

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