Through the first three quarters of iPad availability, Apple sold 3.4 million, 4.3 million, and 7.33 million iPads respectively for a total of 15.03 million units through the first nine months. The estimates for Apple’s second quarter iPad sales are all over the board. For example, JP Morgan is expecting 5.3 million, RBC Capital is expecting 7 million, some are calling for something comparable to the 7.3 million sold last quarter, and Credit Suisse is estimating 7.84 million for the quarter. Estimates of 13 analysts compiled by Bloomberg averaged 6.1 million units for the quarter.
My personal forecast of around 4 million for the quarter – made in December 2010 – is clearly on the low side. At the time I expected a quarter-to-quarter sequential decline because the first calendar quarter is seasonally weak and that trend has been more pronounced in recent years. More, I expected a new iPad launch that would slow gen one unit sales while at the same time production shortages would limit sales of gen two unit sales.
Information in a recently filed complaint between Apple and Samsung shines potential light on unit sales during the quarter. The complaint states, “By March 2011, Apple sold over 19 million iPads.” Now “over 19 million” leaves open a wide range. By this estimate, they’ve sold at least 4 million during the quarter. As StreetInsider logically points out: “by March 2011” could suggest “through March,” or “by the beginning of March.” If the later, then Apple likely sold around 2 million a month – or close to 6 million for the quarter. But I think they likely hit the 4 million units well into March. Given this, iPad unit sales for the quarter are likely closer to 4.5-5.1 million.
We’ll know very soon.
