the futurist’s dilemma

Kevin Kelly has a great note on the futurist’s dilemma:

Any believable prediction will be wrong. Any correct prediction will be unbelievable. Either way, a futurist can’t win. He is either dismissed or wrong. Except if he hits that razor’s edge between the two realms, right on the cusp between plausibility and fantasy, where it is almost true in the improbable future. This is the sweet spot that science fiction authors aim for. Occasionally one hits it.

 

Related

A lot of ink is spilled on the ownership rate

An AP story from earlier this week highlights the work

You can read the entire study here.