the futurist’s dilemma

Kevin Kelly has a great note on the futurist’s dilemma:

Any believable prediction will be wrong. Any correct prediction will be unbelievable. Either way, a futurist can’t win. He is either dismissed or wrong. Except if he hits that razor’s edge between the two realms, right on the cusp between plausibility and fantasy, where it is almost true in the improbable future. This is the sweet spot that science fiction authors aim for. Occasionally one hits it.

 

Related

Apple released their FY 2016 first quarter results today. Here

For my earlier holiday expectations see the following posts: Holiday

Steven Sinofsky recently wrote about technologies labeled as toys and