the futurist’s dilemma

Kevin Kelly has a great note on the futurist’s dilemma:

Any believable prediction will be wrong. Any correct prediction will be unbelievable. Either way, a futurist can’t win. He is either dismissed or wrong. Except if he hits that razor’s edge between the two realms, right on the cusp between plausibility and fantasy, where it is almost true in the improbable future. This is the sweet spot that science fiction authors aim for. Occasionally one hits it.

 

Related

For my past holiday predictions and commentary see the following:

Two great posts on the 50 (and 50 m0re) most

Roughly one in ten workers have filed for unemployment in