I think a lot about how technology diffuses through a society. The implications of technology diffusion are more pronounced today than ever before. Not enough diffusion of innovation modeling goes into the current thinking on device ownership and unit volume. More, large research vendors need to sell reports so they frequently release reports touting large estimates. It is all too common to see press releases read like this:
“Double-digit growth will continue through the following four years and by year X product Y will reach Z million units a year.”
The problem of course is that no one ever goes back and compares these early estimates. Part of the rational for publishing estimates that are three or four years out. Netbook estimates made in late 2009 and early 2010 are of course the poster child for excessive estimates and misguided adoption expectations. While looking for a link for another post, I found the following just as a reminder:
ABI forecasts annual netbook shipments will reach 139 million in 2013
IDC forecasts double-digit growth for netbooks in 2010
and the list goes on.
