The perverse problem with No Child Left Behind like incentive structures:
Teachers spent nights huddled in a back room, erasing wrong answers on students’ test sheets and filling in the correct bubbles. At another school, struggling students were seated next to higher-performing classmates so they could copy answers
Read the full article here.
http://news.yahoo.com/atlanta-schools-created-culture-cheating-fear-130521276.html
A recent article on the slow uptake of 3DTV raises the question: when is technology evolution certain?
Last month Phil Fersht, CEO of HfS Research wrote about the changing (or in need of a change) industry analyst business. Gideon Gartner’s post yesterday brought this to my attention and it is certainly something that I’ve thought a lot about. IIAR is holding a teleconference on this topic late this month. Here are a few thoughts on the points Phil makes:
1) research needs to be dished in bite-size chunks: I’ve written frequently about the vast amount of information overrunning us all. This is a pronounced problem for industry analysts. One of the core value-adds industry analysts provide is a different view that allows research buyers to look outside of the box at the world in which they live. Today there are thousands of “voices” coming across blogs, twitter, and other media-rich sources which allow analysts within firms to hear different opinions sans the need to buy a research vendor. Analysts must add value above and beyond a fresh perspective.
2) There is nothing new in today’s research: Traditional research was/is largely focused on sizing an addressable market. But companies I work with seem to be less concerned with sizing an addressable market perfectly – meaning they are increasingly comfortable with working in a world with some uncertainty when it comes to unit and revenue volume. The rise of several large research firms who’s estimates are always very similar likely drives this. More, these estimates are distant in the world of instant information. A five-year horizon is great for large capital investments, but these have become less impactful today. The analysts to survive (and thrive) will spend increasingly more time teaching their clients what the world will resemble in shape as opposed to in size. This will involve more modeling and tools like scenario planning. The world is demanding a more analytical industry analyst.
3) The Courage (or lack therefore) to be Non-consensus: Related to #2. There is minimal upside for these firms to stray far from consensus – but this ultimately dilutes the value analysts bring to their clients. I cringe when I hear analysts say, “I’m trying to be conservative in my estimate.” My personal goal as an analyst is to be right – all the time, every time. When I find myself far from consensus I highlight what is a contrarian view. I’m careful not to take a contrarian view simply to be non-consensus, but I do believe the ROI on non-consensus views will be more pronounced over the next 5 years.
4) Buyers don’t read research: The time of selling thick research reports is over. As point #1 already made clear, buyers want condensed, actionable information. A thick research report is the opening comment of a long conversation. While it might help the analyst formalize their thinking on a topic, clients today want open-ended conversation. The value-add of the successful industry analyst of tomorrow will be counted in minutes/hours not pages. The best analysts are morphing into strategic advisors.
5) Research Needs Personality: I completely agree succesful research will be driven by personalities not products.
Here are a few additional thoughts:
6) A Tidewave of Data: Hard data was once scarce, but that world is changing rapidly. We are increasingly faced with the opposite problem and this problem of data availability (as opposed to the lack of data) will only get more pronounced over the next decade. Today there are a plethora of “things” analysts can measure and from them create metrics. Many of these metrics are answers in search of a problem. Some analysts will make a living “explaining” these metrics. To be sure, buyers will need to have much of these new data “interpreted” but many of these new data sources will be little more than noise. The introduction of noise will lower the value for all metrics and data which in turn will make some of the above points more important. The successful analyst will use data/metrics to provide a view their clients didn’t see elsewhere. There will be an important subtly in how these data are used.
7) The Macro for the Micro: Analysts have specialized themselves into corners. The “lack of vision” discussed by Phil and others in comments is fundamentally a lack of understanding about the broader surroundings. Too many firms show hockey stick forecasts or tout an understanding of the hottest trends, but fail to explain where this growth is coming from or what implications exist for adjacent categories.
In passing, Phil writes, “At the end of the day, research is discretionary spend.” Too many analysts overlook this simple tenet.
I’ve written about curation in the past. One of the keys to curation – one of the driving features to why curation matters – is discovery. Curation drives discovery which drives more curation. The battle within curation today – and in the years to come – is how curation is done. There are a variety of web services that empower the individual to become a curator. But machine curation will also play an important role. Here are two recent techcrunch stories covering app discovery and content discovery. In both of these you can see how both machine and individual will play an important in curation and discovery.
Coverage in Fast Company about an exciting new section at the 2012 CES. See you in January.
A Comparison of PSTN and IP Traffic From 1997 to 2015. Slides start on page #4.
[slideshare id=8515037&doc=acomparisonofpstnandiptrafficfrom1997to2015-110705135902-phpapp02&type=d]
A recent article in Home Media Magazine – citing research firm SNL Kagan – calls into question the growth rate of 3DTV:
Sales of 3DTVs are projected to actually decline in 2011 as issues surrounding a universal standard, eyewear, dearth of content and price resolve themselves, according SNL Kagan.
Principal 3DTV drivers include live sports and ongoing (though waning) interest in theatrical 3D movies.
3DTV households should top 1.8 million by the end of the year, or 2% of the overall market. The net gain of 1.4 million households is based on an estimated retail sellthrough rate of 75% (up from 35% in 2010) as retail prices drop about 6% to $1,623 per unit. (The retail sellthrough rate compares the amount of inventory a retailer receives from a manufacturer or supplier against what actually is sold to the consumer.)
Kagan said 3DTV household penetration would rise from 5% at the end of 2012 to 21% by 2015 as the SRP falls 21% to $1,195 from $1,511.
CEA research suggests a very different picture for 3DTV (pun intended). According to CEA’s recently published 13th Annual Ownership and Market Potential Study 3DTVs are now owned by 3% of US households. Kagan suggests this figure will only reach 2% by the end of the 2011. In addition to household surveys, CEA also tracks 3DTV unit volume. CEA receives these data directly from the 3DTV OEMs each month. CEA’s estimated 3% ownership rate aligns with the number of 3DTVs that have shipped from OEMs over the last 12 months. More, given the rate at which 3DTVs are currently selling – the household ownership rates for 3DTV will increase significantly in 2011 (compared to 2010). In the early life of a product, it is common to see relatively low units per household. It is only as a product begins to reach mass adoption and ultimately begin to mature that we see higher unit ownership rates per household. In other words, in the early life of a product most unit sales are going to new households and corresponding driving up household ownership rates on a nearly one-for-one basis.
While Kagan suggests a large different in the sell-through rates of 3DTVs between 2010 and 2011, they muddy the water and fail to grasp how retailers behave. In the current environment – retailers won’t (and don’t) take stock of products that aren’t selling through over an extended period of time. Just over the last two months, unit volume of 3DTV is up nearly 200% over the same period a year-ago. This growth rate ONLY typifies and is consistent of product that is experiencing corresponding sale-through growth rates.
In making their claims, Kagan fails to understand the current TV landscape. While topline unit volume is declining – consistent with our January projections – certain segments within TVs are doing well. Higher-end TVs have sold well over the prior few months and these growth rates are showing little sign of abating. Even if they did slow significantly it is hard to fathom they could show negative unit volume for the year. In January CEA had projected 3DTV unit volume in 2011 would grow slightly from roughly 1.1 million units to 1.9 million units. Already year-to-date, the industry has sold nearly 40% of that annual estimate. But new products are heavily influenced by Q4 seasonality. If 3DTV were to slow sharply in 2011 it would have to break seasonal variation in a way I’ve never seen a nacent technology do.
In the current TV landscape 3DTVs are synomous with high-end TVs as many of the 3DTV OEMs have made their highest-end models 3DTVs. SNL Kagan rightly suggests Internet-enabled TVs will do well in 2011. In fact, according to the monthly data CEA received from TV OEMs, Internet-enabled TVs are up roughly 160% YTD compared to the same period last year. But it is important to note that many Internet-enabled TVs are 3DTVs and most/all 3DTVs are Internet-enabled TVs. In other words, some of the growth in Internet-enabled TVs is coming in the form of 3DTVs. SNL Kagan suggesting one grows while the other declines is implicitly suggesting a very specific Internet-enabled TV is growing while some of the highest-end models are actually shrinking.
None of these figures suggest why consumers are buying 3DTVs. Some consumers probably want the 3D functionality. Some consumers just want a high-end TV and in making that purchase end up with one having 3D functionality. This is a story we’ve told frequently over the last 3 years as we’ve watched this market segment develop. At the end of the day the data are what the data are – and its good to have real, actual data.
Perhaps the biggest mistake SNL Kagan makes is to suggest 3DTV unit volume will decline despite price declines in the category. Consumer tech has relatively elastic demand. Consumers respond to incentives and when prices drop consumer buy more. 3DTV prices are dropping and consumers are responding.
Despite all of the hype and all of the panning – 3DTV is on the exact trajectory we would expect a new segment like 3DTV to experience in the early years of its adoption by consumers.
Take for example, JustBuyThisOne – which aggregates thousands of reviews and recommends into a singular purchase recommendation. Consumers are overwhelmed with choice and that choice is clouded by noise in the system – professional reviews, user comments and reviews, etc. JustBuyThisOne disperses these thousands of “sound waves” into a single decision.
Home ownership is still (mostly) in vogue. According to a recent Pew Research Center survey, 81 percent of current home renters still plan to buy a house one day – though the number of individuals who “strongly agree” home ownership is the best investment a person can make is just 37% compared to 49% when the question was asked two decades ago in a CBS News/New York Times survey.
But outside of home ownership renting is the new owning and I suspect it will influence home ownership rates in the decades to come if the general acceptance of renting v. owning sticks. Individuals are even getting increasingly comfortable renting there own possessions to others. Here’s a story on renting your own cars, and here you can rent your couch for the night. Here are just a few examples of the growing influence of renting:
Most are familiar with how zipcar has changed car ownership.
Longer-term bike rental is increasingly popular in major cities like Washington, DC. For $75 a year you can grab a bike when and where you need one.
RentTheRunway – for the girl who has a full closet and yet still nothing to wear. You can rent designer clothes.
Avelle lets you rent designer purses. hwy pay $14K to own a new purse when you can “borrow” one for the month for jsut $1,500.
Cengage is trying to bring textbook rental into the mainstay. The secondary textbook market is so robust, it behaves today as a textbook rental market.
Of course, where the rental model is gaining the most traction these days is with content. Sites like Netflix (movies), Vudu (movies), Amazon Istant Video
One of the books I’m currently reading is Kiss It Good-Bye: The Mystery, The Mormon, and the Moral of the 1960 Pittsburgh Pirates
This Pirates team – and that hit – left an undeniable mark on Pittsburgh. The left field section of the brick wall has over the years been on display in different venues and today a portion of that brick wall remains standing on the University of Pittsburgh campus in Pittsburgh’s Oakland District as a memorial. It is still referred to as “Mazeroski’s Wall.”
I digress because the book is as much about that 196os team as it is about growing up in Pittsburgh and the star ace of that team – Vernon Law. Law collected a series of “witticisms, aphorisms, and rules” during his years in professional baseball – all of which he wrote down in a series of red notebooks he called his Words to Live By. He is also credited with saying, “a winner never quits and a quitter never wins.” and “experience is a hard teacher because she gives the test first, the lesson afterwards.” Here’s a Baseball Digest from July 1960 covering Vernon Law, his high morals and these notebooks.
Law also wrote down for himself six rules that he tried to follow as a player. Here are his 6 Rules of Life
I will never criticize my superiors
I will never insist I am right to the extent of angering others
I will never forget that I am one of God’s marked men
I will always remember I am made of the same stuff as the worst sinner