Understanding Diffusion – Where Major Research Firms Fail 0

I think a lot about how technology diffuses through a society. The implications of technology diffusion are more pronounced today than ever before.  Not enough diffusion of innovation modeling goes into the current thinking on device ownership and unit volume. More, large research vendors need to sell reports so they frequently release reports touting large estimates. It is all too common to see press releases read like this:

“Double-digit growth will continue through the following four years and by year X product Y will reach Z million units a year.”

The problem of course is that no one ever goes back and compares these early estimates.  Part of the rational for publishing estimates that are three or four years out.  Netbook estimates made in late 2009 and early 2010 are of course the poster child for excessive estimates and misguided adoption expectations. While looking for a link for another post, I found the following just as a reminder:

ABI forecasts annual netbook shipments will reach 139 million in 2013

IDC forecasts double-digit growth for netbooks in 2010

and the list goes on.

 

On Parenthood – Money 0

We are still stumbling through this thing called parenthood and I wanted to reflect briefly on the topic of money. I find myself reflecting often on allowance, money, investing, delaying gratification, and entrepreneurship.  Some of the most important life lessons I learned from my parents covered these topics and I’m keen on passing on similar traits to my boys.  As a kid I use to play a stock market game on our Apple IIe and I’m still looking for something comparable for the kids on the iPad.

Someone recently brought ThreeJars to my attention and it led me to explore other online allowance tracking options. You can read reviews of some of the options here: ThreeJars, FamZoo, Moneytrail, Zefty, and FamilyMint. I also came across AllowanceManager and Jandeo.

Here are a few of my thoughts/tenets:

  • Manually Pay Allowance: One of the key features of most of the online allowance services is automatic allowance deposit.  Designed for today’s busy parents who might forget to pay allowance, I feel like this aspect outsources a key parenting opportunity.  I use allowance as a chance to sit down with each child. On the first Sunday of each month I hold a “meeting” with each child in my office.  In addition to paying allowance we talk about how things are going, things they should work on, school, helping mom, etc. I’m hoping this helps keep the communication channels opens and creates an environment where they feel like they can come into my office and discuss things they are dealing with. I want them to feel they can ask for impromptu meetings with me when they want to chat.
  • Separate Allowance from Family Chores: We try to separate allowance from family chores.  There are certain things kids have to do as part of being family members. Accomplishing these chores are expected. We haven’t tied anything to allowance, but I also want them to understand that they don’t get a free “pay check.”  Still finding the balance here.
  • Pay Cash: In today’s digital world I get that these services focus on digital direct-deposit, but I think kids relate to cash.  I also want them to recognize the reality of what they are receiving. I’d prefer to give them cash and have them “re-deposit” the cash immediately in The Bank of Dad.  This way they see it and have to make a proactive decision to save, etc.
  • Pay Interest: In trying to develop long-term saving habits and getting the kids to learn to defer gratification I think its important to pay interest. Right now I pay 20% interest at the end of the quarter on anything they’ve saved but am also considering paying 5% interest on a monthly basis. Right now I pay cash and so at the end of each quarter we add up the money they have and I pay interest on this.  As you can imagine, this is logistically painful since they have to add up their money each quarter.  Moving forward I think I’ll use an online allowance tracker and pay interest off of that.  So anything in cash is considered spending. I’m still trying to figure out how to incorporate investing in addition to traditional savings.
  • Preestablished Allocation: Some of the services allow parents to preestablish allocations between savings, spending, and charity.  I’m torn on this topic.  I think they should make those allocations themselves as part of being responsible money managers, but as part of teaching them I also want them to allocate some percentage of their money to charity and savings. I also want them to learn that long-term wealth is developed by automating the saving/investing decision by putting some money away each month automatically.
  • Setting Larger Savings Goals: Our kids are still young so we haven’t gotten much into setting larger savings goals, but I like that these services allow them to set larger savings goals.
  • How Much to Pay: We’ve been paying a dollar a month for their age.  I’m wondering if we should pay more and let them pay for more things when we are out. I don’t want to make them buy everything when we are out so finding this balance can be tricky and we haven’t yet mastered a good balance. I do want to teach them trade-offs.  Perhaps I’ll pay for anything that I would buy myself (a drink and a hot dog at the baseball game, an occassion soda when we are out) and they have to pay for anything else (souvenirs, ice cream, additional sodas, etc).
  • Help Wanted Ads: While researching these online allowance systems I came across some other interesting ideas.  Suzanne Parker at GrowingRichKids.com writes about having a help wanted ad posted on the refrigerator as a way kids can earn extra money.
  • Paying for Grades: We aren’t paying for grades yet and I’ve seen suggestions that parents shouldn’t pay for grades. I was paid for good grades and think it is fine to pay for good grades but I also think the pay should be consist with real world dynamics.  In other words, I don’t think every A is of equal value. An A in math or science is worth more than an A in art, drama, or PE. Some suggest this may dissuade kids from pursuing their love or where they might have talent.  I would argue it simply helps them learn how the world will likely value those skills.

The Intelligence of Things 0

At its root, the Internet of Things is about being about to uniquely identify devices.  Over the last year I’ve been talking more about the Intelligence of Things.  The Intelligence of Things is spawned by devices and objects being uniquely identifiable and addressable, but more it is able machine-to-machine communication performing tasks on my behalf based upon pre-established parameters or other guiding principles.  Here’s an interesting video from Ericsson that builds of this concept.

[youtube]i5AuzQXBsG4[/youtube]

Is the Future of Reading Social? 0

The role of social in reading is becoming more pronounced. I’m not talking neighborhood book clubs here (no offense). The social aspects of today’s reading leverages the digital environment where both reading and the sharing of content (and consequently content discovery) is taking place.

In Kindle for example, Amazon shows sections of texts highlighted by a large number of other readers.  This reading as social allows you to see what others have found important (and thus highlighted). I’ve found this aggregated, anonymous approach to be very valuable when reading.  It keeps me engaged, helps with retention and ensures I haven’t missed something many others found significant.  This provides a break from reading without providing a distraction. More, it takes advantage of the wisdom of the crowds.

When eReaders grow-up to be Tablets 0

What happens when eReaders grow up to be tablets? This morphing is already well underway. Barnes & Noble has always referred to the Color Nook as a tablet eReader – with tablet being the operative word. At their event this week. B&N claimed the Color Nook is the top selling android tablet in the market. Amazon – the current king in e-ink eReaders – is getting set to launch potentially two new tablet-oriented devices.  E-ink is actively working to bring to market color e-ink screens and other eReader players are treading towards tablet-like devices.  But this evolution has important implications.

First, network economics for text are very different than they are for video and more data-intensive applications. One of Kindle’s opening hallmark features was the ability of the user to download books via the cellular connection without having to independently contract with the service provider.  In fact, at one point Amazon switched Kindle cellular service from Sprint to ATT and users never took notice.

This won’t be the case as users gain access to more data-intensive offerings. These services are more bandwidth intensive (and therefore costly) than delivering text over the network.  Even though our research has constantly shown most tablet users primarily connect via Wi-Fi, the existing service contracts can’t work when devices are more than books. This will be a key element in the new tablets being launched by Amazon.

App usage on apps-enabled devices will crowd out book usage.  This has ramifications for device pricing.  In the early days of Kindle, Amazon subsidized the content instead of the hardware. This changed as Apple moved into the book business and subsequently eReader OEMs began selling ebooks at the publisher price and subsidized the hardware prices (or atleast began selling them at very low margin).  If the margin is made on the ebooks and their are less ebooks sold as a result of changing use-case scenarios – OEMs will be in search of a new business model to driven margin. 

Yes, believe the hype about the National Debt 0

Sally Kohn’s recent prose in USA Today was right in spirit, but nowhere else.  Yes, we should worry about innovation.  Yes, the future of the US economy is innovation.  And yes, we should be making strategic investments into innovation.   But it is ludicrous to suggest the national debt discussion is some “ideological attack.”

Kohn inaccurately compares a company’s income to the US economy’s GDP. The analogy fails on the surface. GDP measures national production, not the US government’s revenues – which are the ultimate source of repayment for debts issued. The US government collects net receipts of $2.16T – giving the US government a ratio of over 6-to-1.

Lighter Shades of Green… 0

Had an interesting conversation with a reporter earlier this week on the topic of “green tech.”  Green tech has always been one of those loosely defined segments of consumer tech.  Many want to box it concretely – but increasingly green is a story of relativism instead of absoluteness. Many (dare I say most) consumer electronics products today have lighter shades of green.  Their singular or primary purpose might not be to lower one’s carbon footprint, but by providing a unique service or offering they might indirectly also provide environmentally beneficial results.

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