Humanoid household robots will become as common as washing machines and dishwashers—but probably not as quickly as many of us hope.
This past week, Tesla provided an update on its Optimus humanoid robots, and it’s clear they’ve made significant progress. I shared my thoughts with Taylor Herzlich for her coverage in the New York Post. I highly recommend checking out her article for more on what Tesla announced (link in the comments).
Elon Musk said Optimus will eventually cost “$20,000 to $30,000” and “it will do anything you want. It can be a teacher, babysit your kids, walk your dog, mow your lawn, get the groceries, just be your friend, serve drinks. Whatever you can think of, it will do. It is going to be awesome… This will be the biggest product ever of any kind.”
I can’t wait, but unfortunately, I will have to.
In an April earnings call, Musk mentioned that Optimus is expected to start performing “useful tasks” by the end of this year and could be available for external sales by the end of 2025. However, it will take much longer to reach that $20,000 to $30,000 price point. How long? It really depends on how quickly production and adoption can scale. This could happen by the end of the decade—I’m hoping within the decade. However, it could also be 25+ years away.
The first dishwasher patent was issued in the 1850s, and the first electric dishwashers were produced in the 1920s. Yet, by the 1950s, only 4% of American households had automatic dishwashers. Even today, just over half of U.S. households own a dishwasher and use it at least once a week.
As I told Taylor, “What makes other household robots, like washing machines and dishwashers, successful is their ability to handle discrete tasks nearly flawlessly every time. This is a key threshold for humanoid robots to achieve, and companies will need to show that these robots can reach the same success rate with well-defined tasks.” We don’t want robots that do everything; we want robots that do specific things well. I want a robot to fold clothes and put them away. Take my money, please!
There seems to be an ongoing debate about where humanoid robots will appear first. I don’t see the uncertainty. I think humanoid robots will show up in industrial and enterprise settings first, and maybe that will help us reach scale more quickly. Part of the reason is the price point—industrial and enterprise organizations will be more willing to adopt expensive robots they can tie to ROI. But societal acceptance could also play a role. While industrial settings may welcome this kind of automation, bringing robots into our personal lives will require us to overcome cultural and ethical considerations.
